FXUS64 KMOB 071932
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
232 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

  - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon
    through the end of the week.

  - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each 
    afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent 
    lightning can be expected with any storms.

  - A Moderate risk of rip currents exists for Florida beaches
    this afternoon and for all area beaches Friday into the
    weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A weak, positively-tilted upper trough with a cutoff low over the 
mid-Mississippi Valley will gradually weaken and lift northeast 
through Thursday, yielding a weak zonal flow pattern by late 
week. Seasonably high moisture, with PWATs around 2 inches, and 
strong instability will support a typical summertime pattern 
through Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms each
afternoon, focused mainly across the interior and along sea 
breeze and outflow boundaries. Activity shifts to the coast and 
offshore late at night near the land breeze. Any storms will be 
capable of producing locally heavy rain, frequent cloud-to-ground 
lightning, and localized gusty winds.

Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates increasing 
moisture ahead of a large-scale backdoor cold front approaching the 
area by the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Moisture pooling and enhanced 
forcing associated with the boundary with a northwesterly flow aloft 
should result in increased storm coverage during that period. Trends 
will be monitored for any strong storm and/or heavy rain potential.

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through the period, with 
afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Overnight 
conditions offer little relief with lows in the mid 70s inland and 
upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Peak afternoon heat indices in 
the 100-107 range are expected, with the chance of a few localized 
spots briefly reaching 108 degrees. A Moderate risk of rip currents 
continues today for Florida beaches before decreasing to a Low risk 
for Wednesday and Thursday. The risk the increases to Moderate on 
Friday for all area beaches, which is expected to persist into the 
weekend. JGC/98

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Current light 
southwesterly winds will wane after sunset and become generally 
westerly at 5-10 knots tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms 
return to the area this afternoon into the early evening and again 
along/just off the coast tomorrow morning. These storms are 
accompanied by drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within 
the strongest storms. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail 
through late week, becoming southerly Friday into the weekend. Seas 
will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 
to 3 feet by the weekend. Expect winds and seas to be higher in 
and around storms. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  94  76  92 /  20  30  10  30 
Pensacola   80  94  80  92 /  20  30  20  30 
Destin      81  92  81  91 /  30  20  30  30 
Evergreen   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  40 
Waynesboro  73  94  73  94 /  20  40  20  30 
Camden      73  93  74  92 /  20  20  20  40 
Crestview   75  96  76  94 /  20  30  10  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$