FXUS64 KMOB 160601 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 101 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Patchy fog is expected overnight with MVFR conditions possible. VFR condition follow for Saturday with gusty northerly winds developing Friday evening into Friday night. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to beissued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 53 70 51 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 84 56 71 54 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 82 58 72 56 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 87 50 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 88 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 50 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$