FXUS64 KMOB 161802 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense fog advisory. A potent upper level trough will dive southeast across the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Friday then off of the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday night. This will drive a strong cold front across the region later this afternoon and tonight. Moisture advection in advance of this front should remain limited, but may be enough along with lift along the front to produce a few showers today along the coast. Most areas should remain dry with the frontal passage. Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that experienced significant damage across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama. Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to account for this threat. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front with high temperatures over the weekend only recovering into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s over interior areas to the lower 50s near the coast. Upper level ridging will rebuild into the forecast area early next week with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures anticipated through next week. /JLH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening hours may cause brief reductions in ceilings an visibilities over portions of the coastal counties. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. The main impact to operations over the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front moving through the area this evening. Winds will increase rapidly out of the north (around 00Z-02Z for the TAF sites) to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Low-level wind shear may also become a concern by Saturday morning with 0-2000 ft shear potentially reaching 25-30 knots, but just below threshold at thistime. Gusty north winds will continue through the end of the period. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds are forecast for tonight as a strong cold front passes over area waters. A Gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters tonight and Saturday, continuing through Saturday night well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for protected waters Saturday night as northerly winds begin to gradually ease. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the offshore waters Sunday through Monday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution in the bays and sounds. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 53 70 51 70 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 56 71 54 70 / 10 0 0 0 Destin 58 72 56 71 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 50 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 54 70 50 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$