FXUS64 KMOB 222331 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect tomorrow for southeast Mississippi from 11AM to 8PM for heat indices up to 109. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze each afternoon this weekend. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the main impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This weekend we finally have some reprieve from the numerous daily thunderstorms with drier air moving in from the north. PWATs have decreased and will be in the 1.4-1.6" range for the remainder of the weekend. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out just along the seabreeze both afternoons. It is still hot with highs above normal in the mid to upper 90s for most of the area and possibly reaching 100, especially in our southeast Mississippi counties tomorrow. Afternoon dewpoints will be lower from the drier air moving in and drop into the mid to upper 60s for most inland areas with some low 60s possible for our northernmost counties. A Heat Advisory was issued for 11AM-8PM tomorrow for our southeast Mississippi counties for heat index values up to 109. Elsewhere, heat index values are just below criteria in the 100-107 range with some localized areas along the coast that may briefly reach up to 110 behind the afternoon seabreeze. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible. Moving into next week, the trough that brought the dry air will move off to the east. PWATs increase back to above average beginning Monday through the end of the week with ensemble mean values of 1.9- 2.2". An upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest will slowly build in from the west. This places the area under northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge. This pattern can bring more organized convection down into our area, so we will watch for any of these ridge riders watch as we head into the next week. Otherwise, expect normal summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next week. Typical summertime heat is in store next week with high temperatures closer to normal in the low to mid 90s and afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat index values look to continue to be just below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108 for much of next week, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the area each day. Heat headlines are not completely out of the question, but the convective coverage each day should limit the heat somewhat. Low temperatures bring some overnight relief with values in the low 70s for a majority of the area with mid to upper 70s just along the coast. ...BEACH FORECAST... The rip current risk will continue to be low for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain generally 1 to potentially 2 feet through the end next week. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop over coastal counties Sunday afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few stronger storms capable of producing gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northerly to northwesterly wind by the morning hours. Winds along the coast should turn more southerly by the afternoon hours behind the sea breeze. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through late next week. Winds are expected to follow a pattern that shifts from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 97 75 93 / 0 30 10 60 Pensacola 77 96 79 93 / 0 30 10 60 Destin 79 93 80 91 / 0 20 10 50 Evergreen 71 99 72 94 / 0 20 10 40 Waynesboro 73 100 73 92 / 10 10 30 50 Camden 72 97 73 92 / 0 10 20 40 Crestview 72 97 73 95 / 0 30 10 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$