FXUS63 KMPX 081841 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 141 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing showers and storms could produce brief gusty winds and localized flooding. Chance for severe weather is low. - Another round of storms is possible this afternoon and evening favoring southern to southeastern MN and western WI. - Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the weekend and even more into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The radar mosaic as of 245am shows a few clusters of generally weak storms moving across the region, with the most notable being clusters over western WI moving east, in western Stearns moving east, and in eastern SoDak moving east. The main concern has transitioned from the severe threat earlier in the night to a localized/flash flooding threat as the lower level inversion has resulted in significant low level capping and a lack of wind gusts making it to the surface. The last few storms could still produce a gust or two, but generally we expect to see little in the way of traditional severe weather threats from this point forward due to a lack of instability. As far as the flooding threat goes, we are not completely out of the woods yet but the trajectory of the storms moving in this morning is farther south than what moved through earlier in the night, and as such the flooding threat is a bit lower as we have yet to see storms moving through an area that was already hit. We may end up issuing a couple flood warnings yet tonight, but the overall risk is a bit lower than it was looking thanks to the different locations of separate storms. In general compared to the guidance, the later rounds of storms have been farther south of the HREF PMM QPF which was favoring an area from St. Cloud to Brainerd, and instead this round is more clustered from St. Cloud to Mankato. A couple inches of rain are possible from the storms moving in, and for those that have been mostly dry so far we will struggle to see any significant flooding from this. The one exception would be urban areas that lead to significant runoff, so we are not quite completely out of the woods yet. The frontal boundary along which the storms have been moving is expected to sag southwards throughout the day, and there are some pretty significant timing differences between the CAMs still. The RRFS produces a couple storms in northern Iowa that move towards southern MN as early as 10-11am, with the HRRR keeping storms around from this morning much later and re-forming storms generally shortly before or around 6pm. Forecast soundings from the HRRR in southern MN show a healthy 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE by 3pm with little if any capping and adiabatic surface lapse rates allowing for decent mixing, so I wouldn't be surprised if storms started to fire a bit earlier than the model reflectivity is suggesting for the post- morning round. The main limiting factor will be the shear as the hodograph is fairly unidirectional with the majority of the profile favoring westerly winds with a slight southward tilt in the lower levels. Speed shear is still good enough to maintain storms as they get going, so while spinning storms would be less likely outside of storm/outflow interactions, storms should be able to maintain their strength if they remain discreet enough. Overall the inclusion of the marginal/slight SPC risks is welcome for southern MN as we certainly have the thermodynamics and just enough dynamics to support the storms. As the storms exit later today, that is pretty much it for rain chances for the foreseeable future as we transition to the incoming heat dome that has been advertised byus and the weather enterprise in general. There is some uncertainty remaining in just how warm we get as can be seen if you compare the 500mb maps beginning Sunday through midweek from the GEFS/EPS respectively. The GEFS trough is more progressive in eastern North America which allows the ridge to flatten earlier, resulting in a marginally weaker dome of heat which would promote low to mid 90s as our warmest temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. The EPS is a bit slower, resulting in taller 500mb heights almost reaching 600dam, with EPS mean highs in the upper 90s for early next week. We are more than likely looking at heat headlines regardless of which wins out for at least a Monday/Tuesday next week, with more possible depending on which ultimately is closer to reality. Precipitation chances will be absent as long as the ridge is in place as large scale subsidence will be present, with the longer range ensemble meteograms showing very few members with appreciable rain chances until at least Thursday next week and even then it is less than 20% of EPS members. The NAEFS continue to highlight near maxed out 500mb heights and 99th percentile temperatures for this time of year to nobodies surprise. It might be a good idea to prep a bit early for this heat wave and find ways to keep cool next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tricky forecast through this evening with the wavy/wobbly surface front draped over the area in combination with multiple disturbances aloft helping spawn scattered showers/thunderstorms through this evening. Still the best chances for precipitation will be southern-eastern MN through western WI. Therefore, have kept AXN-STC dry while other sites have mention of mainly -RA as CB/TS mention is too difficult to pinpoint with any confidence at any given site. Will need to see how radar trends evolve in order to issue an AMD with CB/TS but the hazard for any given site cannot be ruled out. Behind the precip, ceilings look to drop to MVFR for most locations overnight through Thursday morning, followed by gradually clearing skies as Thursday progresses. Winds will generally run under 10kts, which may force directions to have varying directions. In addition, the thunderstorms and associated outflow boundaries may produce localized breezy/gusty conditions. KMSP...Best timing for rainfall looks to be within the earliest portion of the 08/18z TAF as the greater chances of CB/TS looks to be south and east of MSP, thus have kept mention of MSP precip to just -RA. Still could have some thunder/lightning but no organized storms look to reach MSP today. Conditions become tranquil with lowering ceilings tonight through sunrise tomorrow, followed by partial clearing during the day Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Freeborn. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...JPC