FXUS63 KMPX 151947 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds tonight, with gusts to 45 mph possible in western and southern MN. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain, with increased fire weather concerns returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rainfall moving across the area is pretty much coming in as forecast, with a broad deformation band of rain to the northwest of a surface low that is near the IA/MO/IL border this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are on track to come in in the 0.75" to 1" range from down around Albert Lea up toward Chippewa Falls/Eau Claire, around 0.5" in the Twin Cities, down to around 0.1" by the time you get to St. Cloud. This rain shield will clear the Eau Claire area between 10pm and midnight, to be replaced by a tight pressure gradient and strong low level CAA. This will allow the winds to kick up, with wind gusts up over 40 mph expected west of I-35 from roughly midnight to noon on Friday before they start to slowly settle down in the afternoon. Besides the winds, forcing from the northern stream shortwave, combined with instability from the differential CAA, will result in a batch of showers moving south through MN around midnight (as seen with the HRRR). After that, it's looking like this may be the last chance for rain we have for the next 7+ days. Friday, high pressure will come out of the Rockies and sink southeast toward the southern Plains. The ridge axis will be centered over the MPX area between 00z and 06z Saturday (7pm Friday to 1am Saturday) and will already be off to our southeast by Saturday morning. This leads to some uncertainty with lows Saturday morning, especially over western and central MN, where return flow and southwest winds will start blowing during the night, with lows likely being achieved near midnight, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the rest of the night. Still, NBM probability for a low of 32 or less is basically 100% northeast of I- 94 and 50-75% southwest of I-94 (for the core of the Twin Cities metro, the freeze probability drops to 20% thanks to the urban heat island), so we went ahead with a Freeze Watch for the entire area Friday night/Saturday morning. Growing Season Index (GSI) values are currently up around 0.8, which indicates stressed, but still active vegetation. By Thursday next week, the GSI values are forecast to fall below 0.5, indicating that this brief cold push combined with decreasing daylight will be enough to shut down the growing season for 2026. For the rest of the forecast, it's back to ridging and dry Pacific airmasses. One thing we've seen is that models are holding this ridging pattern in place longer, with any sort of breakdown in the pattern not coming until next weekend or early the following week. It will still be cool on Saturday thanks to the cold start, but from Sunday through next week, it will be highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s as our exceptionally warm October weather returns after this brief cool down. The one thing to watch starting Saturday and continuing through next week will be the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. Right now, the day with the lowest dewpoints also has our coolest temperatures, with the warmer temperatures next week coming with higher dewpoints. This all works out to RHs remaining above critical thresholds (25%), but we'll have to keep a close eye on RHs given the potential for some breezy periods to go with this unseasonably mild airmass. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light rain continues into this evening with mainly MVFR visibility & ceilings expected. Better chances for IFR conditions exits across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The rain ends from west to east late this afternoon & evening, but MVFR ceilings stick around through most of tomorrow morning. Another round of isolated to scattered rain showers is likely overnight but any minor impacts to visibility will be brief. Gusty winds will be an issue overnight & especially tomorrow morning. Northwest winds around 10 kts this afternoon increase this evening with gusts mainly to 20-25 kts through tonight. Speeds increase overnight into early tomorrow morning & become ore northerly through tomorrow morning. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts are likely with gusts of 30-35 kts. A few gusts to 40 kts are possible, especially across western Minnesota. Winds will remain gusty into the afternoon but speeds decrease to around 20 kts. KMSP...Light rain continues until 7-8 PM with MVFR ceilings & visibility prevailing. Brief periods of IFR are possible this afternoon. Ceilings lift & break up briefly this evening but return to MVFR overnight through Friday morning. Wind speeds pick up this evening but the main impacts begin early tomorrow morning when northerly winds gust to 30-35 kts. Speeds will decrease through the afternoon but still gust to 20-25 kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...ETA