FXUS63 KMPX 181812
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
112 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. A few could
  become strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota 
  into western Wisconsin. The overall risk has decreased.

- Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return at the
  start of Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

All is quiet to start the day as the surface low pressure sits 
almost directly over the Twin Cities. Widespread stratus and 
patchy fog spread out on the north and west side of the low, 
limiting temperatures from warming this afternoon. The cold 
front is essentially draped along the I-35 corridor south of the
Twin Cities, while the warm front extends east from the Twin 
Cities slightly north of I-94. Expect scattered showers to 
develop across the Central Plains this afternoon, and spread 
north into MN and WI through the evening. The heaviest rainfall
and best chance for thunder will be around 8pm to 12am. The 
best environment for thunder, and potentially a strong to 
severe storm, will be in that warm sector east of the cold front
and south of the warm front (i.e. east of I-35 and south of 
I-94). Overall the threat has decreased due to limited 
instability (noted by the 1630z update to the SPC Day 1 SWO). 
The main threat will be large hail and strong winds, as well as 
localized flash flooding anywhere that thunderstorms train for 
several hours.

Light rain will wrap up Tuesday morning as the upper level wave 
pushes east. At the surface, breezy northwest winds will develop
and strong CAA will keep temperatures about 10-15 degrees below
normal. Additional showers may develop as the cold air advects 
in, though saturation will be very limited throughout the 
profile.

Mostly quiet weather will persist until this weekend as a
shortwave develops over the Northern Plains. This will provide
us with a few chances for rain, though ensemble QPF is mostly 
around a few tenths and in the range of a normal rain event for 
this time of year. In other words, Memorial day weekend will 
have occasional rain, but nothing to change plans over at this 
time. Temperatures will also be gradually rising throughout the 
week, peaking on Monday with widespread highs in the 80s 
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Low stratus, MVFR-to-IFR, expected to prevail throughout this
duration as a low pressure center and its associated NE-to-SW
frontal boundaries remain slightly to the east of the WFO MPX
TAF sites. A round of rainfall with some embedded TSRA (mainly
southern MN into western WI) is expected from late this
afternoon through late this evening, potentially lasting as
lingering showers into the early morning hours. Visibilities
will drop to as low as IFR, particularly if heavy downpours
cross over any given site. Precipitation is expected to end
overnight to just before dawn Tuesday morning, followed by a
slow rise in ceilings during the day Tuesday. Winds will remain
NE throughout, with speeds around 10kts during the day today
into this evening, increasing to near 15G25kts late overnight
through the day Tuesday.

KMSP...Ceilings to remain in the 010-015 range through this
afternoon, with a small shot of some showers developing prior to
00z this evening, After 00z, chances ramp of significantly of a
swath of rain/TSRA shifting NE from southern MN into western WI.
MVFR ceilings to continue, with visibilities potentially into
IFR range should heavier downpours move across MSP. As the
precip winds down overnight, MVFR ceilings will continue but NW
winds will increase to near 15G25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. 
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC