FXUS64 KMRX 072356 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 756 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently, there are two areas of surface convergence that is focusing convection this afternoon. One over southern Kentucky into southwest Virginia and another over the northern Plateau. Scattered to numerous storms have developed there. PWs are from 1.7 to 1.8 inches with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Best theta-e ridge axis is over the northern Plateau. The 850-300mb mean wind is almost parallel with the west to east boundary over southern KY to SW VA. This area has the greatest threat for localized flash flooding. As this boundary sinks slowly south into northern Plateau/NE TN, there will be an increased threat there. The latest MPD also illustrates this threat of isolated flash flooding. Severe storm threat is limited to mainly the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee where DCAPES are the highest with values of 800- 900. Else where DCAPES are rather limted with values of 400-700. Mid-level lapse rates are also quite limited less than 5.5 degrees. For the remainder of today and this evening, an upper trough will remain across the mid-Mississippi valley with southwest flow over the southern Appalachians. Mid level water vapor loop continues to depict this upper low pressure trough quite well. REFS and HREF depicts scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon into the early evening hours. Noticed the latest radar shows an cluster of storms moving east northeast across northern Alabama which may move into southeast Tennessee late this afternoon. Besides the convection, low clouds and fog development are likely overnight with localized dense fog anticipated. For Wednesday and Thursday, this upper trough will slowly move east toward the region with southwest flow aloft remaining. However, the trough will weaken with the greatest chance of convection along and north of interstate 40. Overall, airmass changes very little so impacts from the storms will be similar to this afternoon's environment. For Friday into next weekend, a series of jet streak/short-waves will move across the Plains states, Ohio valley, into the mid- Atlantic Region. A frontal boundary will move across the region Sunday as well. Eventually a digging upper trough over the eastern United States keep the unsettled weather conditions with more widespread showers and storms. For early next week, upper trough axis moves east with surface ridging building into the Tennessee valley. Drier conditions can be expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Storms are currently isolated across the region. Storm chances at all terminals are low for the rest of the night. Some fog is possible tonight mainly near TRI. Not expecting fog to be as bad as last night since none of the terminals got significant rain today. Showers and storms are expected to be isolated near the terminals tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 90 / 20 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 71 87 / 30 50 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 87 / 40 60 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 68 85 / 40 40 40 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.&& $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...McD