FXUS64 KMRX 081754
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
154 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the 
week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening 
hours each day. 

- Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, 
isolated flash flooding, and lightning.

- A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose
  a more widespread flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The latest surface analysis shows that the boundary to our north has 
moved into the region and is over Northern Tennessee stretching back 
to a low in Arkansas. In the upper levels, a weak cut-off low or 
trough remains just to our west centered over the Lower Mississippi 
Valley today. This trough will slowly drift eastward into our region 
by Thursday. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated and it should 
remain quiet through the early morning hours according to the NBM 
and CAMs. Patchy fog is likely through the early morning hours 
mainly in locations that received a lot of rain the last couple of 
days. 

By this afternoon, showers and storms will return with that boundary 
still lurking somewhere nearby and a trough just to the west. HRRR 
has isolated convection this afternoon but the rest of the CAMs look 
more scattered. NBM suggests isolated coverage in the Valley and 
more scattered in the higher terrain. Isolated flooding issues will 
be possible again today. PWAT values may be a tad lower today closer 
to 1.5 inches but steering flow will still be westerly and parallel 
to the boundary. Therefore, some training may occur. A few strong 
storms may produce some gusty winds with good instability and DCAPE 
values but the threat is too low for the SPC outlook. Another round 
of widespread showers and storms are expected on Thursday as the 
trough moves closer and remnants of the surface boundary linger.

Friday through the weekend a trough will be over the Eastern U.S. 
and a ridge will be building into the Central U.S. A series of minor 
waves moving through the pattern will bring multiple rounds of 
showers and storms possibly into the night. Friday through Saturday 
may pose a higher flood risk with high rain rates due to deep 
moisture and good instability. The wet pattern will continue through 
at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected across the region 
through the evening. Updated timings of PROB30s based on latest 
radar and CAM trends. Persistence forecast with brief morning fog
at KTRI. Southwest winds will be breezy for TYS/TRI tomorrow, 
with gusts around 20kts possible. Another period of scattered 
showers and storms are expected tomorrow afternoon, and future TAF
issuances may likely need to include some mention of at least 
vicinity activity. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  90  73  91 /  20  40  20  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  88  72  88 /  40  60  50  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  88  71  88 /  30  60  40  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  85  68  85 /  60  70  40  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KRS