FXUS64 KMRX 091102
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
702 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon 
and evening; the main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty 
winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning.

- A wet pattern sets up Friday and continues through the weekend, 
which may pose a more widespread flooding threat.

- Dry weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Water vapor shows a shortwave trough located over West TN and the 
lower OH Valley. This trough will be tracking east through today, 
and be positioned over East TN by the afternoon. This may result in 
slightly better coverage of showers/storms than we have had over the 
past few days. We will continue to have plenty of moisture in the 
area, with PW in the 1.8-2 inch range. Slow-moving or training cells 
will pose an isolated flooding threat, and while some gusty winds 
are possible, they are unlikely to reach severe limits as DCAPE will 
be limited. 

As the shortwave trough moves east of our area Thursday evening, 
a trailing boundary to our north will push southward. The 
proximity of this boundary along with passing midlevel 
disturbances will keep showers/storms going into Thursday night 
despite the loss of heating. A stronger flow in the 850-500 mb 
layer also develops on Friday, which will bring some better 
forcing for lift across a larger area. The flow is parallel to the
boundary, which will enhance the flooding potential across our 
northern sections. The presence of the boundary in a very moist 
environment with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers 
and thunderstorms going Friday night and into Saturday. The 
flooding threat will only increase with this persistent wet 
pattern, with northern areas having the highest potential. A Flood
Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. Neighboring 
offices have started Flood Watches on Thursday, but for our area, 
the primary flooding threat for a good portion of the area appears
more likely to begin on Friday, so we will hold off at this time.

Sunday and Monday a bit uncertain as to whether the front will lift 
away from the area as a low pressure system tracks along the OH 
Valley, or if it will remain near our area. The pattern shifts to 
drier conditions on Tuesday as a large high pressure ridge over the 
Plains extends east and produces a deep northerly flow across the TN 
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A few showers and storms are headed into CHA with a TEMPO added
in to incorporate this trend. Reductions are currently not
anticipated but are still possible. Otherwise, the region will
remain VFR for the rest of the day with the main impact being
additional showers and storms. PROB30s were maintained, and any
places that see rainfall could also see fog development tonight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  73  90  73 /  40  10  90  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  90  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  70  86  70 /  40  40  90  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  67  83  67 /  60  40  90  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW