FXUS64 KMRX 091745 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening; the main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern sets up Friday and continues through the weekend, which may pose a more widespread flooding threat. - Dry weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Water vapor shows a shortwave trough located over West TN and the lower OH Valley. This trough will be tracking east through today, and be positioned over East TN by the afternoon. This may result in slightly better coverage of showers/storms than we have had over the past few days. We will continue to have plenty of moisture in the area, with PW in the 1.8-2 inch range. Slow-moving or training cells will pose an isolated flooding threat, and while some gusty winds are possible, they are unlikely to reach severe limits as DCAPE will be limited. As the shortwave trough moves east of our area Thursday evening, a trailing boundary to our north will push southward. The proximity of this boundary along with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers/storms going into Thursday night despite the loss of heating. A stronger flow in the 850-500 mb layer also develops on Friday, which will bring some better forcing for lift across a larger area. The flow is parallel to the boundary, which will enhance the flooding potential across our northern sections. The presence of the boundary in a very moist environment with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers and thunderstorms going Friday night and into Saturday. The flooding threat will only increase with this persistent wet pattern, with northern areas having the highest potential. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. Neighboring offices have started Flood Watches on Thursday, but for our area, the primary flooding threat for a good portion of the area appears more likely to begin on Friday, so we will hold off at this time. Sunday and Monday a bit uncertain as to whether the front will lift away from the area as a low pressure system tracks along the OH Valley, or if it will remain near our area. The pattern shifts to drier conditions on Tuesday as a large high pressure ridge over the Plains extends east and produces a deep northerly flow across the TN Valley. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated storms could briefly impact terminals this afternoon, otherwise, main aviation impact will be breezy southwesterly winds with gusts near 20kts at TYS and TRI. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is lower in potential for some early morning precipitation, but chances for storms will start to really increase around the very end of the TAF cycle. There is also a low chance brief MVFR cigs develop near TRI in the morning, similar to previous days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 73 87 / 10 90 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 71 84 / 30 90 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 70 84 / 40 90 80 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 81 / 40 90 90 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-CockeSmoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...KRS