FXUS64 KMRX 161719
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Rain chances return this afternoon into tonight, especially in 
  northern areas, as a front arrives from the west. 

- Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first
  frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia,
  and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A
  warming trend will follow.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The ridge and high pressure over the Southeast break down as a 
deep trough moves into the Midwest and then into the Ohio Valley 
by afternoon. The surface low will move through the Great Lakes 
and into New England bringing a cold front through the Tennessee 
Valley this afternoon. Winds will be gusty this afternoon and 
evening with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. The best chance
for showers will be Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and 
along the East Tennessee mountains and foothills this afternoon 
through tonight. Elsewhere, showers, if any, will be isolated. 
Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected. A 
changeover to light snow in the late night/early morning hours 
will be possible on the highest mountain peaks with little to no 
accumulation expected.

This weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the 50s and 
lower 60s Saturday. Saturday will be breezy as well with gusts up to 
25 mph likely at times. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in 
the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday 
and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee 
and the higher elevations. 

Early and mid next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s 
by Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Front bringing showers and lower ceilings will impact the 
airports this evening. High confidence that showers will be in the
area, but low confidence on coverage and intensity of showers. 
Winds will remain gusty overnight behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  62  43  66 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  59  40  66 /  40   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  58  40  65 /  30   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              46  55  34  64 /  70  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99