FXUS64 KMRX 162338
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
738 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Showers this afternoon and tonight will linger over the 
  mountains into early Saturday before ending. Snow may mix in 
  over the higher mountain peaks late tonight into early Saturday.
  
  
- Much cooler and drier air will move in for the weekend and the 
  first frost of the season will likely occur Saturday night 
  across portions of the area, with frost possible again Sunday 
  night. 

- Dry with a warming trend next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Very warm again this afternoon ahead of the front, and highs are 
flirting with daily records again at CHA, OQT, and TRI. Today's 
record highs are below: 

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
10-16   85(1953)       87(1897)       83(1984)       83(2016)  

A strong cold front will be pushing through our area this afternoon, 
with gusty winds and some showers.  A few rumble of thunder cannot 
be ruled out far north, but CAPE looks very limited. We will see 
some wind gusts approaching or in a few spots possibly exceeding 30 
mph this afternoon, and these gusty winds will linger through 
tonight over some of the higher elevations. The showers will 
continue behind the front tonight as a deep mid/upper level trough 
digs through the region, then taper off late tonight with just a few 
showers lingering into Saturday mainly over the higher elevations. 
As much colder air pushes in behind the front, some snow will likely 
mix in over the higher mountain peaks later tonight into early 
Saturday before the precipitation ends. Snow may even whiten the 
ground with very light snow accumulation over the highest peaks late 
tonight/early Saturday before it melts.  

The weekend will be cool with high temperatures well below seasonal 
normals Saturday and still several degrees below normal Sunday. We 
will likely see the first frost of the season for portions of the 
area Saturday night.  Right now the question for frost Saturday 
night is how much wind will be stirring, which could keep the frost 
confined more to sheltered valleys.  It will be mostly clear again 
and winds will likely be lighter Sunday night, with frost again 
possible especially north and in outlying areas further south. No 
frost advisories, since we are past the date for ending 
the issuance of frost/freeze products for the fall. 

High pressure is forecast to be in control as we head into next 
week.  Monday through Friday look dry with a gradual warming trend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Low stratus associated with the frontal passage will stick around
overnight at TYS and TRI. CHA will likely bounce between MVFR and
low VFR cigs. Any chance for additional precipitation is low.
Northwest winds remain around 10kts with occasional gusts to 20kts
tonight. Wind speed and gusts increase slightly after daybreak,
but cigs will return to low VFR by end of the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  62  43  66 /  30   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  59  39  65 /  90  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       47  58  40  64 /  70   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              46  55  34  64 / 100  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BH