FXUS64 KMRX 221855
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
 
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in
  Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee
  Mountains this evening. A strong to severe storm isn't out of
  the question, especially in the north, but overall severe
  chances are low.
 
- Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A shortwave trough will drop southeast from the upper midwest into 
the Ohio valley between this afternoon through Sunday morning, 
helping to push a cold front through the region tonight. Ahead of
this front, we could see some isolated strong to severe storms 
capable of some damaging winds this afternoon through tonight. 
While better chances for severe storms exist to our north, we'll 
be in the left exit region of a jet streak aloft this evening, 
with enough shear in place to support some cluster type cell
organization and enough instability to support some fairly strong
storms. Again, better chances exist to our north, but a strong to
severe storm can't be ruled out for any points roughly north of
the I-40 corridor. That being said, the chances for severe storms
are overall on the low side. 

Looking ahead, the aforementioned shortwave will lead to a large 
scale upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS 
Sunday into Monday before pulling away through eastern Canada and 
the New England area on Tuesday. The subsequent northwest flow aloft 
will keep us dry Sun through Tue before rain chances enter the 
forecast again. Dewpoints may even mix out into the 50s for both Sun 
and Mon afternoons. And while temperatures will be near seasonal 
norms both days, the drier air would be a welcome break from the 
humid conditions of late. As mentioned, rain chances return by 
midweek as troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS once again. 
Additional shortwave energy likely brings another system and 
associated rain chances through the region Wed into Thu before 
northwest upper flow gives us another shot of dry and cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

At least some ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are expected in East Tennessee this
afternoon, with a little better coverage expected with an
additional round of convection tonight just along/ahead of an
incoming front. KTRI stands the best chance of seeing SHRA/TSRA
but even that's not certain. Have PROB30 groups in at KTRI and
KTYS to handle things. KCHA seems less likely to see any
convection. The last item of note is there could be some fog
development later tonight but uncertainty in how quickly clouds
clear out preclude mentioning that in the TAFs for the moment.
KTRI would be the most likely to see it if it occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  91  65  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  87  62  87 /  20   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  87  61  87 /  20   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  81  57  82 /  50  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD