FXUS64 KMRX 230521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
 
- Showers and storms are currently isolated and expected to 
dissipate shortly after midnight.

- Clearing skies in the early morning hours will lead to fog in the 
morning hours. Fog may be dense in spots.

- A cold front will move through the region by morning bringing 
cooler, drier conditions today and tomorrow.
 
- Rain chances will return by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The cold front is currently on our doorstep over Eastern Kentucky 
and the Cumberland Plateau on the latest analysis. Showers and 
storms are currently isolated but new activity is popping up in the 
foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. CAMs and the NBM agree 
that showers and storms will dissipate by 1 or 2 AM EDT. Confidence 
is increasing that clouds will clear out before sunrise and fog will 
likely be an issue this morning. The front will move through tonight 
bringing cooler temps and lower dew points today and tomorrow. 
Sunday and Monday dew points will be in the 50s and highs will be in 
the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90-91). 

Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with high pressure at the 
surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep 
trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies.

The NBM has low rain chances Wednesday increasing to 40-60% chances 
by Thursday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again 
by midweek with a shortwave rotating through the pattern on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Rain has come to an end tonight, so the only significant weather
concern in this TAF period is the potential for more patchy dense
fog this morning. Less certain at KTYS, but included a tempo for 
IFR conditions at KTRI again. Fog should dissipate near 13z, then 
VFR skies with light winds and dry weather the remainder of the 
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  62  87  63 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  61  87  62 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  57  82  57 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington