FXUS64 KMRX 232339
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
739 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 732 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
 
- Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through
  Tuesday. 

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and 
  especially Thursday.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Upper troughing will remain over the eastern US for the next few 
days as surface high pressure to our north and northwest drifts 
slowly east. This will provide us with a dry days and comfortably 
low relative humidity values each afternoon through Tuesday. Some 
patchy fog may develop in the late night hours tonight especially 
near rivers and lakes. 

By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, 
allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to 
increase. Models suggest short wave energy moving across the area 
may have enough moisture to work with for a few showers and 
thunderstorms Wednesday, especially south and mountains. By Thursday 
into Thursday night, models show a stronger upper wave moving 
through the Great Lakes Region, dragging a weak cold front into our 
area. This will likely be the day with the highest coverage of 
showers and storms. We will have to wait until we get closer to see 
about the potential for any strong to severe storms, but right now 
the ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of CAPE 
and > 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for severe 
storms looks quite low. 

Lower confidence in the details further out, but models generally 
suggest high pressure will bring at least some drying behind the 
front for Friday into the weekend. The NBM still has some low 
chances for showers and storms for these days, especially over the 
mountains during the afternoon hours. 

High temperatures will generally not be far either side of normal 
for the entire forecast period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Predominant VFR conditions and light winds less than 10kts are
expected for the TAF cycle. Brief early morning fog/br cannot be 
ruled out at TRI as the forecast low is expected to near the 
crossover temperature of 55 degrees. Confidence is not high enough
in fog potential to introduce anything less than MVFR conditions 
at this time. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  91  65  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS