FXUS65 KMSO 071914 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 114 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy winds 15 to 25 mph on Wednesday will cause choppy conditions on area lakes. A few thunderstorms are possible. - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a circulation of low pressure spinning over the coast of British Columbia and a broad area of dry air and high pressure extending from the California coast into the Great Basin. In the near term, the Northern Rockies will sit between these two features. Tonight, that means westerly flow aloft and limited moisture will bring slight chances for thunderstorms to Lemhi County and southwest Montana later this afternoon and evening. Model soundings indicate a dry lower atmosphere conducive to gusty outflow winds of about 30 mph accompanying any storms that are able to develop. Similar conditions will hold on Wednesday, only with extent of storm chances extending northward along the Continental Divide. In addition to afternoon storms on Wednesday, expect sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph for northwest and west-central Montana, which will likely create choppy and hazardous conditions on area lakes, especially Flathead Lake. High pressure will build going into the weekend, lowering the chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Daytime high temperatures will gradually rise going into Sunday. Expect 90s across the valleys of western Montana and triple digits for the lower Salmon and Clearwater river valleys. An upper level jet streak will bring increasing west winds to the Northern Rockies on Saturday as well. These winds, along with high temperatures and low daytime relative humidity, will result in elevated fire weather concerns for much of the Northern Rockies. Looking further ahead, forecast models indicate the potential for a significant surge of subtropical moisture to enter the region between July 13th and 15th. This weather pattern shift would increase the risk for widespread, rain-producing thunderstorms across western Montana and north central Idaho. && .AVIATION...Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail across the Northern Rockies airspace today under the influence of building high pressure. The primary aviation hazard will be isolated afternoon convection focused along the Continental Divide into southwest Montana, bringing localized threats of erratic outflow winds. A transitioning weather pattern on Wednesday and Thursday will introduce widespread breezy westerly surface winds, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 knots and higher gusts. This will likely create periods of mechanical turbulence and crosswind impacts at regional terminals, alongside a renewed chance for afternoon thunderstorms and associated aviation impacts across southwest Montana on Wednesday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$