FXUS65 KMSO 081938 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy winds 15 to 25 mph today will cause choppy conditions on area lakes. Thunderstorms are possible in southwest Montana and Lemhi County, with about a 5% chance of a severe storm. - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday. Radar returns early this morning showed waning convection over northwest Montana spawned by an elongated trough of low pressure centered over the coast of British Columbia. A surface low south and east of this trough will push a cold front through the Northern Rockies this afternoon, bringing increased winds. Expect choppy conditions on area lakes, especially Flathead Lake this afternoon. Instability, aided by the cold front, will also increase this afternoon, bringing chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The geographical focus of thunderstorm activity will be southwest Montana and Lemhi County. The combination of instability, shear, and moisture will be greatest for eastern Lemhi and Silver Bow counties, which is where there will be about a 5% chance for a severe thunderstorm (58 mph winds and/or 1 inch diameter hail). The rest of southwest Montana and Lemhi County should expect thunderstorms to produce gusty outflow winds of about 30-40 mph, small hail, brief heavy rain, and lightning. High pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies going into the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will decrease on Thursday. Model soundings indicate some increased instability on Friday evening, so not ruling out another round of (sub-severe) thunderstorms then. Temperatures will bounce up on Saturday and stay elevated into early next week. Expect daytime high temperatures in the 90s for the valleys of western Montana and triple digits in the Hells Canyon and lower Salmon river valleys. An upper level jet streak will move over the Northern Rockies on Saturday. Strong winds, along with abnormally high temperatures and low relative humidity, will result in concerns for near- critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana and Lemhi County on Saturday and Sunday. Next week will bring an increase in subtropical moisture. This influx of moisture would elevate the risk for widespread, rain- producing thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho by midweek, providing a distinct change from the dry, and windy conditions anticipated over the weekend. && .AVIATION...West to northwest surface winds will increase across northwest and west-central Montana terminals, with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph (15 to 20 knots) anticipated. Meanwhile, scattered convective activity is expected across southwest Montana and Lemhi County. The primary threat to aviation operations from these thunderstorms will be erratic, strong outflow boundaries. High- resolution guidance indicates a 25 to 35 percent probability of convective wind gusts exceeding 35 knots near flight routes and terminals along the I-90 and I-15 corridors south of Garrison Junction, with a 5 percent probability of localized gusts reaching up to 50 knots in the most intense cells. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$