FXUS65 KMSO 151833
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1233 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Cool mornings and pleasant afternoons the rest of the week.

-  Gusty winds and choppy lakes on Saturday, especially across
   northwest MT.

-  Pattern shift early next week, gradually cooling with scattered
   showers.

A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and pleasant
mid-October weather across the region through Friday, aside from some
patchy valley fog Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday may stay
slightly cooler in the valleys than initially expected due to stable
conditions and cold air trapped in the valleys overnight
(inversions).

The pattern shifts this weekend, as a dry cold front sweeps through western
Montana and north-central Idaho Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, breezy westerly winds will help warm daytime temperatures.
Expect wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with exposed higher terrain seeing gusts
in excess of 50 mph. These winds will create choppy conditions on local
lakes and pose hazards for small watercraft, especially along the eastern
shores of Flathead Lake. While a few light showers may pass through
northwest Montana, little to no rain is expected. Afternoon temperatures
will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year through
mid-week.

A broader weather system will move into the western US mid-week. Most of
the moisture and storm energy are expected to track well south of our area
into the Great Basin. However, the Northern Rockies will still transition
to a more active weather pattern. Expect a return of showers and a cooldown
to near-average seasonal temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...A ridge of high pressure remains over the region through
Friday, generally favoring VFR conditions. However, the strengthening ridge
will favor overnight valley inversions, resulting in areas of dense fog and
stratus. A Canadian air mass moving south from Alberta this evening may
bring just enough of a light easterly wind to keep the lower atmosphere
mixed at KGPI and KMSO, which should prevent low-level fog from
developing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$