FXUS66 KMTR 082135 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 235 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Seasonally cool to seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of today before a warming trend kicks off tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen over the desert southwest as we head into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm by 2-5 degrees across the interior with most locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. Far northern North Bay and East Bay may reach the low to mid 90s with the interior Central Coast reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. If you're looking for cooler weather, coastal areas and the bay shoreline will stay in the 60s to 70s. HeatRisk remains Minor for most of the region with patchy Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the far interior Central Coast. As temperatures start to rise again, make sure to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated while outdoors. Diurnally breezy winds continue in the afternoon and evening with gusts between 20 to 30 mph possible in favored windy locations (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The warming trend continues through the extended forecast period as high pressure remains in place over the desert southwest. Interior high temperatures may fluctuate a degree or two each day but will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot spots in the far North Bay, East Bay, and Interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal areas and the bay shoreline warm up slightly but will stay in the 70s (coast) to upper 70s/low 80s (bay shoreline). By late this weekend, the center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly northeastward over the Intermountain West where it will continue to strengthen heading into next week. Temperatures look to warm further early next week with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across portions of the Bay Area and higher elevations. Conditions do not currently meet Heat Advisory criteria but this may be reevaluated as we get closer in time. Thunderstorms remain possible late this weekend into early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into California from the Gulf of California/Baja California. The moisture source remains good with PWATs in excess of 1", about 150-200% or normal for this time of year. The 700-500 mb lapse rates remain around 7 C/km which is decent. The question becomes how much instability (MUCAPE) we will have. Current models show isolated pockets of minimal MUCAPE across our region but this is by no means widespread or a substantial amount. Longer term models can sometimes struggle with instability across our region so we will be able to better assess this parameter as we move into the range of higher resolution/short term models. While we are still expecting little to no precipitation with this moisture surge, the ECMWF is showing the potential for some light rain (< 0.1") along the coast Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns remain if thunderstorms are able to develop with storms possible across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is recommended to stay up to date on the forecast especially as we get into the range of higher resolution models and get a better idea of the overall setup. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Satellite is currently showing stratus clearing from most terminals. Widespread VFR conditions are expected by 19-20Z today, except at HAF where it will remain IFR-MVFR throughout the TAF period. A northwest to west wind flow will persist at sites south of the Golden Gate, meanwhile North Bay terminals experience southwest to southerly winds. Fresh to moderate breezes are forecast between 10- 15 kt across our area. The marine layer returns again this evening after 02-03Z Thursday with more borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings at most terminals. Low to medium confidence (30-40% chance) on whether LVK and SJC will develop MVFR ceilings as it is dependent on if the marine layer deepens beyond 1000 feet. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings are still hovering around the terminal, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 19Z today. Moderate breezes with embedded gusts increase through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in around 05Z Thursday followed by IFR ceilings around 08Z, which persist through 19Z Thursday. Medium confidence on the arrival and scattering of the stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar general pattern to SFO. Winds ease slightly earlier and MVFR/IFR ceilings arrive shortly after SFO. Ceilings are expected to scatter out before SFO Thursday morning as well. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has cleared at MRY and SNS with VFR expected to continue through this afternoon. Guidance is in agreement that stratus will return early this evening (approx. 00- 03Z) and remain through late tomorrow morning. The marine layer will lower to 1200-1000 ft tonight which may result in the marine layer lowering to IFR overnight. LAMP guidance suggests LIFR conditions and reductions in visibility are possible early tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate. Breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea