FXUS66 KMTR 180648 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1148 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains through Monday - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tonight through Monday) An upper level low pressure system digs into the tri-state area of CO, UT, and WY by late Monday morning. We remain under the influence of the broader trough associated with it, leading to breezy offshore flow. North to northeast winds pick up tonight across the Santa Cruz Mountains, the interior North Bay Mountains, and the Eastern Santa Clara and East Bay Hills. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph along with gusts up to 50 mph, though localized gusts up to 60 mph are expected for favored ridges, gaps, and passes. These winds will usher in drier air to the region as well, keeping the fire weather threat elevated for interior Bay Area and Central Coast locations. In terms of more every day hazards from the winds, impacts include, but are not limited to difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, downed tree limbs, the potential for power outages, and the possibility of loose or unsecured items being blown around. Winds begin to ease late Monday morning into the afternoon and will continue to decrease into the evening and overnight hours. Offshore winds should bring some warmer temperatures to the region, the 90s for the interior Bay Area valleys, the 60s to low 70s along the coast, and the mid 70s to low 80s for the Central Coast Valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tuesday through next Sunday) Upper level troughing looks to hold just west of the Desert Southwest and into southern CA Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving us with teetering between quasi-zonal and barely trough-y. Weak offshore lingers at least over the interior mountain ranges through Tuesday into Wednesday, with onshore flow trying to make a diurnally driven push each afternoon/evening. During this time high pressure just to the west of us (over the eastern Pacific) builds, pushing towards the coast mid week. The upper level trough begins to meander south to southwest of southern California late week. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and perhaps the marine layer. Current guidance suggests we could see a 500ft marine layer return by Wednesday, with a 1000-1200ft marine layer by Thursday and Friday. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of haze being observed at HAF. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Strong and gusty northerly/offshore winds will prevail tonight with onshore flow returning tomorrow afternoon. Low level wind shear (LLWS) is expected through tomorrow morning. The 18Z end time is pessimistic with most LLWS activity expected to occur when the atmosphere is decoupled overnight until it recouples tomorrow morning, probably closer to 15Z. LLWS is primarily expected between FL015 and FL020 with speeds of 35-45 knots out of the north/northeast. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty northerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Strong and gusty northerly winds are expected through themorning before backing to become onshore tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected tonight before improving tomorrow. Strong northerly breezes with widespread gale force gusts and rough to very rough seas are expected tonight. Conditions will slowly begin to improve tomorrow as winds diminish and seas abate. Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft throughout the week, especially for the northern outer waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to affect the region, shifting slightly into Sunday afternoon, and becoming north to northeast. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early Monday before diminishing. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ006-505-509- 530. Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ504-512-514-515. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea