FXUS63 KOAX 072312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with
  highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms Wednesday through
  Friday. Main hazards with any strong-severe storms will be
  damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

- A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Another quiet day today with mostly clear skies and light winds
generally out of the south. High pressure remains over the
region for one more day before a jet streak pushing east out of
California breaks down the ridge leading to a more active
weather pattern for the rest of the week. Highs today will peak
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices warming into the
low-to-mid 90s. 

As the ridge breaks down, we'll see the return of the low-level
jet, advecting more moisture into the region from the Gulf. At
the same time, we'll see a shortwave pull the main active
frontal boundary back south to right near the Nebraska-South
Dakota state line. Over the next few days we'll see shortwaves
interact with this boundary as well as nocturnal activation of
the low-level jet leading to periodic storm chances across our
area. 

Wednesday with increasing moisture expect to see increasing
cloud cover, especially through the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures won't be much warmer than we see today, but
humidity will be about 5 to 10 percent higher, bringing heat
indices up into the mid-to-upper 90s. 

The previously mentioned shortwave moving through during the 
day tomorrow could activate a few pop-up showers and storms 
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threat with these 
storms appears to be damaging winds due to dry air in the lower 
levels keeping cloud bases fairly high. Model soundings show a 
fairly decent inverted-v signature, indicative of a damaging 
wind threat. Still think any severe weather will be fairly 
isolated at this time due to weak environmental shear. The 
better chance for more widespread storms will be with an MCS 
rolling through out of central Nebraska overnight. This MCS 
develops from afternoon/evening storms that start out over 
eastern Colorado/western Nebraska, coming together and likely 
maturing at it's strongest over central Nebraska. As it moves 
into our area, we should see a weakening trend with damaging 
winds being the primary threat. This is corroborated by the SPC 
Day 2 Convective Outlook showing a level 2 "slight" risk over 
central Nebraska transitioning to a level 1 "marginal" risk over
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Thursday's weather will be highly dependent on what happens with
storms overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, but guidance is
in fairly good agreement with showers lingering across our area
through Thursday morning. Cloud cover likely will keep 
temperatures cooler through the afternoon, though highs will
still be in the 80s. Thursday night, we expect another MCS to
roll through, more across far southern portions of our area with
potential for more heavy rain and low threat for damaging 
winds. Depending on this system's track, we could see showers
and storms linger into Friday morning as well, with temperatures
again staying somewhat milder through the afternoon with highs
in the 80s.

Going into the weekend, we see a strong ridge start to build up
over the Rockies signaling a prolonged period of heat on it's 
way. Temperatures will start trending back upward on Saturday 
while expanding High Pressure spreads over the Northern Plains 
to Great Lakes region. Highs on Saturday will warm back into the
mid 80s to near 90, continuing this trend back into the upper 
80s to mid 90s on Sunday. Extended guidance has slowed down the 
warming trend, getting us closer to Extreme Heat more likely 
toward Monday-Tuesday of next week now. Rain chances are likely 
to dry up, so if you haven't had to use your sprinklers yet this
season, you might want to make sure they're working here soon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Relatively light south winds continue this evening into tonight.
A widely scattered cumulus deck around 5 kft should dissipate
later this evening. Increasing clouds is forecast on Wednesday 
as our next weather system approaches. During the morning into
the afternoon, winds shift towards the southwest with scattered
cumulus developing around 6 kft. Any showers and thunderstorms 
are anticipated to remain north and west of the area until late 
in the period. OFK can expect a low chance of thunderstorms 
during Wednesday afternoon, but timing and coverage remains low
confidence at this time. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Chehak