FXUS63 KOAX 082227
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- |Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening
  into tonight. The main hazards will be strong winds, hail, and
  localized flooding due to heavy rainfall.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through
  Friday across the region.

- A pattern shift Saturday will bring a return of the heat on
  Sunday and into the extended forecast. Widespread highs in the
  90s and lows in the 60s and 70s are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Showers and a few weak thunderstorms have fired up along a cold 
front and are currently moving across northeastern 
Nebraska/northwestern Iowa. This activity is expected to continue 
over the next few hours. Heading into the evening, models are 
showing a line of thunderstorms developing along the cold front. 
MLCAPE values of 2500+ are expected along with DCAPE values of 
1000+, particularly for areas extending from along and south of a 
line from Fremont to Utica. A few single thunderstorms will 
eventually congeal into a line as it moves southeast. Strong to 
severe thunderstorms are expected with wind, hail, and localized 
flooding be the main concerns. Precipitable water values are in the 
1.4-1.7" range, so any storms that are able to get going could be 
efficient rain makers. Right now, the best chance for strong storms 
will be after 7pm. Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight. 

A few showers/storms may linger into the morning Thursday, before 
tapering off by early afternoon. Enjoy the cooler temperatures as 
highs reach the mid-80s for most locations. Afternoon high 
temperatures will be dependent on how soon the rain and clouds clear 
out. A quicker exit would allow us to warm slightly higher than 
forecasted temperatures, while a delayed exit would result in cooler 
temps. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures, dewpoints will be 
in the 60s and 70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. A shortwave trough 
moves across the region Thursday afternoon/evening, bringing a 
chance for a few additional showers and storms. 

Friday will bring more relief from the heat as highs climb into the 
low to mid-80s. However, dewpoints will once again be in the 60s and 
70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. Another shortwave trough slides 
across eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon, bringing another chance 
for showers and thunderstorms. 

Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast: An upper ridge 
builds over the region with surface high pressure centered over Iowa 
and Illinois. While we will have a break from the thunderstorms, the 
heat is expected to return. The CPC is showing that there is a good 
chance of above normal temperatures occurring across the Midwest and 
Great Plains in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sunday highs will 
reach into the 80s and low 90s. Heading into the start of next week, 
widespread 90s will return. Lows will be in the low 70s several 
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thunderstorm development is underway along a front draped across
northeast Nebraska this evening. Storms will quickly grow into 
a larger cluster that slowly pushes southward into the overnight
period. Confidence is high (80%) that each terminal will see
thunderstorms tonight, with some amendments/refinements likely 
needed in exact timing. Patchy MVFR to IFR conditions are 
possible under any heavier thunderstorms. Strong to severe 
storms will also be possible, with pockets of damaging wind 
gusts (up to 50 kts) and hail (up to 1.50 inches). Severe 
weather potential will gradually diminish into the overnight 
period. 

Storms will clear from north to south during the early morning
hours Thursday, with patchy MVFR ceilings possible into the
morning hours behind the clearing showers. Winds will remain 
out of the south ahead of the front, quickly shifting to 
northerly behind the front. Winds will remain at 8-12 kts, 
besides when augmented by thunderstorm gusts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood