FXUS63 KOAX 150506 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at 90%-100% through the morning. - Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon. - Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday morning with calm winds and clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper- level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in dry air. Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains, we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning. Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through 11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty winds will likely continue until around 6pm. With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln. As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend, we'll see southwesterly flow move back in Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won't be enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to- mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period, as showers continue to overspread the region. While a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, any weak storms should be few and far between. Northerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon and evening as showers move out. Expect speeds of 15 to 20 kts, with gusts up to 35 kts possible. Lower ceilings and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR by around 00Z Thursday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...KG