FXUS63 KOAX 160454
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds overnight into Friday morning. Wind chill drops
  into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire CWA for late
  Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to
  fall as low as 30 degrees by Saturday morning. 

- Dry conditions continue with a warming trend into next week.
  Next widespread chance for showers & storms won't be until
  late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Low clouds are moving in from the north overnight tonight with
gusty winds out of the north. Looking at the overall pattern, a
deep upper-level trough is bringing a surge of northerly winds
into the Northern Plains tonight. These winds are amplified by a
strengthening pressure gradient as a broad ridge over the
Intermountain West pushes into the Plains. Winds will be 
strongest toward daybreak tomorrow morning with northerly winds 
gusting 30 to 40 mph, potentially higher in northeast Nebraska. 
With windy conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 
40s, we'll see wind chill fall to near or even below freezing 
across much of our area Friday morning. As the trough shifts off
to the east and high pressure builds in, winds will relax going
into the afternoon with highs warming into the low-to-mid 50s.

This ridge slides east across the central CONUS bringing a
transition back to southwesterly flow late Saturday. Mostly
clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s 
to low 40s by Sunday morning. As southwesterly flow continues to
advect in warmer air, we'll see temperatures climb into the 
mid-to-upper 60s Sunday afternoon with this warming trend 
continuing into next week. 

While the weather remains quiet, the upper-level pattern
continues to be fairly unstable with a series of shortwaves
moving through amplifying warm-air advection across our area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures potentially reach near 80 
by Wednesday afternoon. We're watching another deep trough 
forecast to slide down the West Coast and deepen through the 
week next week. Weak shortwaves ahead of the main trough 
Wednesday and Thursday could bring a low chance of showers or 
storms. Our next good chance for more widespread showers and 
storms looks to be later next week with the arrival of the main 
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR ceilings will push in from the north overnight and linger
into late morning/early afternoon Friday before scattering out
with mostly clear skies thereafter. Also expect strong northwest
winds, with gusts of 30-40 kts through Friday morning. Speeds
will decrease as clouds exit, with winds dropping below 10 kts
by Friday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA