FXUS64 KOHX 072338
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and
  weekend. Heat index values near 100 degrees are possible mid to
  late week, mainly west of the Plateau.

- Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several
  days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low,
  but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with
  the stronger, slower-moving storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

We've had very persistent weather conditions across the area the
past several days. At times convective parameters have changed to
influence the overall coverage/intensity of showers and storms, 
and that will continue to be the case. For today, observed and 
forecast soundings suggest a bit of a mix of slow-moving heavy 
rainfall producers given PWs 1.8" to 1.9" for areas west of I-65. 
There's already been isolated activity near the Tennessee River 
this morning, mainly mod-heavy showers, in proximity to better 
moisture profiles and the lingering upper-low swirling over the 
Mid Mississippi Valley. Areas east of I-65 have a little more mid-
level dry air/DCAPE. This suggests an increased probability of 
strong storms and isolated damaging winds, but the overall severe 
threat is very low and storm intensity will be somewhat transient 
given little wind shear. Guidance is bringing best coverage of 
convection today across the northern half of Middle Tennessee, but
all areas could have at least scattered activity through the 
afternoon and evening.

For tomorrow the air mass isn't appearing to change much. There's
still plenty of moisture and diurnal instability around. The weak
upper-low just to our west is forecast to devolve into a more open
shortwave trough and move slowly northeast toward Kentucky. 
Regardless, this feature aloft will continue to influence 
afternoon/evening convection through tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The aforementioned shortwave will be slowly scooting' northeast 
on Thursday. Best rain/storm chances will be across the eastern 
portions of Middle Tennessee as a result. However, medium-ragne 
guidance continues to depict a zonal flow thereafter with passing
perturbations late week which will interact with moist, unstable 
air and a surface boundary. Waves of mainly diurnal convection are
forecast Friday through Sunday as a result. The overall risk of 
severe weather and flooding is low, but some of these details will
be more predictable as we get closer to late week since an 
increase in mid-level flow is progged. Guidance & ensembles are 
shifting to drier conditions early next week. Throughout the 
forecast period there are no temperature-related issues, just 
typical summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A weak surface boundary remains stretched across Middle Tennessee
this evening and has provided the focus for convection for most of
the afternoon, with still considerable activity ongoing as we 
head into the evening. In the near term, KBNA and KMQY are the 
most likely to be affected for the next hour or so. Overnight, we 
once again expect widespread fog across the region, although we're
not confident that IFR conditions will develop, so we'll keep it 
MVFR for now at all terminals. Tomorrow, once again, we expect 
afternoon convection to develop which we've handled with PROB30 
remarks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  88  71  91 /  20  50  20  30 
Clarksville    70  87  70  91/  20  60  20  30 
Crossville     66  83  66  83 /  20  70  30  60 
Columbia       69  88  69  90 /  20  50  30  40 
Cookeville     68  84  68  85 /  20  70  50  60 
Jamestown      66  83  66  84 /  20  70  40  50 
Lawrenceburg   68  86  69  88 /  20  50  40  50 
Murfreesboro   70  89  70  91 /  20  50  30  40 
Waverly        69  86  69  90 /  20  50  20  20 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Rose