FXUS64 KOHX 080450 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1150 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible mid to late week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Earlier convection has dissipated but moistened soils will increase chances for radiational fog tonight/early Wednesday morning. There's roughly a 20-40% chance for patchy dense fog to develop across Middle TN with locations that received rain earlier today being the most likely candidates. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today. An upper low over western KY/TN will drift to the east and become more of an open shortwave trough by the evening. With plenty of instability and PWATs in the 1.75-2"+ range, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Bulk shear will be meager, so chances are low for storms to become severe. Like today, the more likely outcome will be storms producing torrential downpours that could cause some localized flooding concerns. We'll warm up a bit on Thursday with slightly drier air moving in from the west thanks to the flow aloft becoming more zonal. This may keep the bulk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms relegated to the eastern half of Middle TN, but any storm will still be capable of producing heavy rain with PWATs around 1.5-1.75". Heat indicies will reach the upper-90s to low-100s across the central and western portions of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Greater chances for widespread diurnal showers and thunderstorms will return Friday-Saturday. There's a low chance for severe storms Friday and Saturday, but shortwaves moving through aloft will provide more shear than we've seen over the past couple of days, especially north of I-40. PWATs will continue to be high, meaning any storm will be capable of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding concerns. Heat indices near 100 remain possible for areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau through Saturday. Next week looks warmer and drier but without concern for dangerous heat indices like last week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A weak surface boundary remains stretched across Middle Tennessee this evening and has provided the focus for convection for most of the afternoon, with still considerable activity ongoing as we head into the evening. In the near term, KBNA and KMQY are the most likely to be affected for the next hour or so. Overnight, we once again expect widespread fog across the region, although we're not confident that IFR conditions will develop, so we'll keep it MVFR for now at all terminals. Tomorrow, once again, we expect afternoon convection to develop which we've handled with PROB30 remarks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 71 88 72 / 60 20 60 30 Clarksville 87 70 87 71 / 80 30 60 20 Crossville 82 66 82 66 / 70 20 70 30 Columbia 88 69 88 70 / 50 20 50 20 Cookeville 84 68 84 68 / 70 20 60 40 Jamestown 83 66 83 66 / 70 20 70 40 Lawrenceburg 86 68 86 69 / 40 20 50 30 Murfreesboro 89 70 88 70 / 50 20 60 30 Waverly 86 69 87 70 / 70 20 50 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Rose