FXUS64 KOHX 081114 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible mid to late week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Earlier convection has dissipated but moistened soils will increase chances for radiational fog tonight/early Wednesday morning. There's roughly a 20-40% chance for patchy dense fog to develop across Middle TN with locations that received rain earlier today being the most likely candidates. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today. An upper low over western KY/TN will drift to the east and become more of an open shortwave trough by the evening. With plenty of instability and PWATs in the 1.75-2"+ range, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Bulk shear will be meager, so chances are low for storms to become severe. Like today, the more likely outcome will be storms producing torrential downpours that could cause some localized flooding concerns. We'll warm up a bit on Thursday with slightly drier air moving in from the west thanks to the flow aloft becoming more zonal. This may keep the bulk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms relegated to the eastern half of Middle TN, but any storm will still be capable of producing heavy rain with PWATs around 1.5-1.75". Heat indicies will reach the upper-90s to low-100s across the central and western portions of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Greater chances for widespread diurnal showers and thunderstorms will return Friday-Saturday. There's a low chance for severe storms Friday and Saturday, but shortwaves moving through aloft will provide more shear than we've seen over the past couple of days, especially north of I-40. PWATs will continue to be high, meaning any storm will be capable of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding concerns. Heat indices near 100 remain possible for areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau through Saturday. Next week looks warmer and drier but without concern for dangerous heat indices like last week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 IFR/LIFR patchy fog mainly outside of the Nashville area will improve over the next few hour with VFR conditions returning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again after 17z and will continue through 02z. MVFR/IFR conditions in any showers or thunderstorms. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 72 90 74 / 60 30 20 60 Clarksville 87 71 91 74 / 60 40 30 60 Crossville 82 66 83 67 / 50 30 50 40 Columbia 88 69 90 72 / 50 30 30 40 Cookeville 84 68 84 70 / 70 40 50 60 Jamestown 83 66 84 68 / 60 40 50 40 Lawrenceburg 86 69 88 71 / 40 30 50 40 Murfreesboro 88 70 90 72 / 60 40 30 60 Waverly 87 70 90 73 / 40 30 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ024- 056>058-060-061-075-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Mueller