FXUS64 KOHX 081643
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and
  weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible through the
  end of the week, mainly west of the Plateau.

- Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several
  days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low,
  but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with
  stronger, slower-moving storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

As a low pressure system swirls near the bootheel of MO on 
satellite, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to kick off in 
Middle Tennessee. We're expecting coverage to increase as the low 
pushes east this afternoon and evening. While some of these 
thunderstorms will be loud, produce heavy downpours, and maybe 
include some gusty winds, we're not expecting any severe storms 
today. Shear is extremely low, meaning the storms won't be able to 
really sustain themselves long enough to become severe despite a 
fair amount of instability. Highs will get into the mid to upper 
80s, with heat indices in the 90s this afternoon.

Thursday will be similar for the area, with warmer highs in the mid 
80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday 
aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the 
precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the 
upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. While the outlooked 
area remains north of the KY/TN state line, we're still looking at 
scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the 
morning hours on Thursday. Greatest chances for thunderstorms seems 
to be east of I-65 currently, but other locations could see them as 
well. Again, we are not expecting severe storms at this time. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Into the weekend, as various rain chances careen through Middle 
Tennessee, our chances for flooding will also increase as high PWATs 
continue to be a threat. Given the already saturated soils, and the 
risk for another 3 to 4 inches through Sunday, a Flood watch has 
been issued for Thursday through Sunday. We could also see some 
isolated severe storms Friday into Saturday, as we are in a Marginal 
(level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC. Marginal is 
the best word to describe our risk, as shear remains in the barely 
double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained 
storms but CAPE is high across the region. Similar setups to what's 
going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant 
outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to 
be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, with no tornado risk expected 
at this time. 

Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer 
rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer 
feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices 
forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next 
week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as 
NW flow will set up over Middle Tennessee as we find ourselves east 
of a strengthening ridge for the beginning of the work week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

IFR/LIFR patchy fog mainly outside of the Nashville area will
improve over the next few hour with VFR conditions returning. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again after 
17z and will continue through 02z. MVFR/IFR conditions in any 
showers or thunderstorms. Light winds under 5 knots. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  71  90  74 /  80  30  30  70 
Clarksville    87  70  91  74 /  80  30  30  70 
Crossville     82  65  82  67 /  70  30  60  70 
Columbia       88  69  90  72 /  70  30  40  50 
Cookeville     84  67  84  70 /  80  40  60  70 
Jamestown      83  66  83  68 /  70  40  60  70 
Lawrenceburg   86  68  87  71 /  60  30  50  50 
Murfreesboro   88  70  90  72 /  80  40  40  60 
Waverly        87  69  90  73 /  50  30  30  60 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for 
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller