FXUS64 KOHX 082345 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible through the end of the week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As a low pressure system swirls near the bootheel of MO on satellite, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to kick off in Middle Tennessee. We're expecting coverage to increase as the low pushes east this afternoon and evening. While some of these thunderstorms will be loud, produce heavy downpours, and maybe include some gusty winds, we're not expecting any severe storms today. Shear is extremely low, meaning the storms won't be able to really sustain themselves long enough to become severe despite a fair amount of instability. Highs will get into the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the 90s this afternoon. Thursday will be similar for the area, with warmer highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. While the outlooked area remains north of the KY/TN state line, we're still looking at scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the morning hours on Thursday. Greatest chances for thunderstorms seems to be east of I-65 currently, but other locations could see them as well. Again, we are not expecting severe storms at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances careen through Middle Tennessee, our chances for flooding will also increase as high PWATs continue to be a threat. Given the already saturated soils, and the risk for another 3 to 4 inches through Sunday, a Flood watch has been issued for Thursday through Sunday. We could also see some isolated severe storms Friday into Saturday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC. Marginal is the best word to describe our risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, with no tornado risk expected at this time. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as NW flow will set up over Middle Tennessee as we find ourselves east of a strengthening ridge for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 To the surprise of absolutely no one, more storms have developed in the warm, unstable and very humid Middle Tennessee air mass as we head into the evening. The terminals could be impacted to various degrees during the next 1 to 2 hours, but we expect the activity to really nosedive after sunset. We've included some light radiation fog at a few of the terminals for the overnight and early morning period, but winds may stay up just enough to keep it from getting too dense. Of course, we've made mention of more afternoon convective possibilities for Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 90 74 90 / 30 30 70 80 Clarksville 70 91 74 89 / 30 30 70 70 Crossville 65 82 67 83 / 30 60 70 90 Columbia 69 90 72 90 / 30 40 50 70 Cookeville 67 84 70 84 / 40 60 70 90 Jamestown 66 83 68 83 / 40 60 70 90 Lawrenceburg 68 87 71 88 / 30 50 50 80 Murfreesboro 70 90 72 90 / 40 40 60 80 Waverly 69 90 73 89 / 30 30 60 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Rose