FXUS64 KOHX 090438 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1138 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday - Drier conditions expected next week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our active pattern will continue for the next few days. With several embedded shortwaves aloft, slow moving boundaries at the surface, and a juicy airmass, the atmosphere is primed to support multiple rounds of torrential rain. This rain will be falling on saturated soils, leading to flash flooding concerns through the weekend. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. SPC has highlighted Middle TN as having a marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging wind gusts Thursday and Friday, but the environment looks more supportive of gusty winds late Thursday night and into Friday. Thursday: A shortwave trough moving through the area tomorrow afternoon will be our main forcing mechanism for convection during the day. Some guidance is showing drier air upstairs, leading to inverted-V soundings and the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust. The CAMs are not in agreement on coverage tomorrow as the HRRR shows fairly minimal coverage while the NAM3k shows scattered storms. Regardless of coverage, any cell will be capable of producing gusty winds and torrential rain that could lead to flooding issues. Thursday night - Friday night: Concern for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding may continue into Thursday night as an increasingly strong southerly LLJ and shortwave trough traverse the Ohio River Valley. Guidance is not in agreement on coverage, but this could support multiple rounds of messy thunderstorm clusters moving across the area through the night and into Friday. Better shear will be available during this period, and PWATs will soar to 2-2.25"+ (greater than 90th percentile). The HRRR is showing a bowing segment to our north and west starting to fall apart by the time it reaches Middle TN late Thursday night with a second round following shortly after and continuing into Friday morning. The NAM3k, on the other hand, keeps us mostly dry through the night with the bulk of the activity staying north in KY. By the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop with greatest chances east of I-65. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday - Sunday: Aloft, a positively tilted trough across the Midwest will transition from an open wave to a closed low that will reside over TN/KY through the weekend. At the surface, a west/east draped boundary will slowly drift south. These features will support additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Monday - Thursday: Our pattern will change a bit with the start of the new week as a broad upper ridge expands over much of the CONUS. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but overall the pattern looks much drier than this week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 To the surprise of absolutely no one, more storms have developed in the warm, unstable and very humid Middle Tennessee air mass as we head into the evening. The terminals could be impacted to various degrees during the next 1 to 2 hours, but we expect the activity to really nosedive after sunset. We've included some light radiation fog at a few of the terminals for the overnight and early morning period, but winds may stay up just enough to keep it from getting too dense. Of course, we've made mention of more afternoon convective possibilities for Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 71 91 74 / 100 50 30 50 Clarksville 87 70 91 74 / 80 40 20 60 Crossville 83 65 83 67 / 80 40 60 50 Columbia 88 69 90 72 / 60 30 30 40 Cookeville 84 67 85 69 / 90 50 50 60 Jamestown 85 66 84 68 / 80 40 50 60 Lawrenceburg 86 68 88 71 / 60 30 40 30 Murfreesboro 88 70 91 72 / 80 60 50 50 Waverly 88 69 90 73 / 60 40 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Rose