FXUS64 KOHX 091103 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 603 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday - Drier conditions expected next week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our active pattern will continue for the next few days. With several embedded shortwaves aloft, slow moving boundaries at the surface, and a juicy airmass, the atmosphere is primed to support multiple rounds of torrential rain. This rain will be falling on saturated soils, leading to flash flooding concerns through the weekend. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. SPC has highlighted Middle TN as having a marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging wind gusts Thursday and Friday, but the environment looks more supportive of gusty winds late Thursday night and into Friday. Thursday: A shortwave trough moving through the area tomorrow afternoon will be our main forcing mechanism for convection during the day. Some guidance is showing drier air upstairs, leading to inverted-V soundings and the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust. The CAMs are not in agreement on coverage tomorrow as the HRRR shows fairly minimal coverage while the NAM3k shows scattered storms. Regardless of coverage, any cell will be capable of producing gusty winds and torrential rain that could lead to flooding issues. Thursday night - Friday night: Concern for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding may continue into Thursday night as an increasingly strong southerly LLJ and shortwave trough traverse the Ohio River Valley. Guidance is not in agreement on coverage, but this could support multiple rounds of messy thunderstorm clusters moving across the area through the night and into Friday. Better shear will be available during this period, and PWATs will soar to 2-2.25"+ (greater than 90th percentile). The HRRR is showing a bowing segment to our north and west starting to fall apart by the time it reaches Middle TN late Thursday night with a second round following shortly after and continuing into Friday morning. The NAM3k, on the other hand, keeps us mostly dry through the night with the bulk of the activity staying north in KY. By the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop with greatest chances east of I-65. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday - Sunday: Aloft, a positively tilted trough across the Midwest will transition from an open wave to a closed low that will reside over TN/KY through the weekend. At the surface, a west/east draped boundary will slowly drift south. These features will support additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Monday - Thursday: Our pattern will change a bit with the start of the new week as a broad upper ridge expands over much of the CONUS. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but overall the pattern looks much drier than this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-40 will continue this morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms over the plateau this afternoon. Thunderstorms will approach the northwest part of the area after 5z. MVFR/IFR in any showers and thunderstorms. Light southerly winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 74 90 73 / 30 50 60 80 Clarksville 91 73 89 72 / 20 60 60 80 Crossville 83 68 83 68 / 60 50 80 80 Columbia 90 72 89 72 / 40 30 60 70 Cookeville 85 70 84 70 / 50 60 90 90 Jamestown 84 68 83 68 / 50 60 90 90 Lawrenceburg 88 71 87 71 / 50 30 60 70 Murfreesboro 91 73 90 72 / 50 40 70 80 Waverly 90 73 89 72 / 30 50 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Mueller/Seider