FXUS64 KOHX 091741 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roadways. - A marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) exists for Middle Tennessee through Sunday. Primary hazard is damaging winds, but this is secondary to flooding potential. - Drier conditions expected next week, with continuing diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An MCS around St. Louis is making its way SE this afternoon, with plentiful outflow boundaries and diurnal cu visible on satellite imagery. Still expecting today to get into the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. SPC has placed the area in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for today and Friday. Main hazard from this is damaging winds for the afternoon today, however, as we shift into the overnight hours our threat will shift as well. As a shortwave trough interacts with an increasing 700mb LLJ in Middle Tennessee, moisture in the atmosphere will increase as well, providing a prime opportunity for flash flooding overnight. The flood watch across our area remains in effect through the weekend to account for other rain chances, but tonight will be a decent threat given how the ground responded with this morning's thunderstorms. Into Friday afternoon and evening, things will shift to more isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms, but these will also pose a flooding risk with torrential rain expected in stronger thunderstorms. Marginal is the best word to describe our severe risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances continue to careen through Middle Tennessee, chances for flash flooding will be on the rise. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter any flooded areas. NEVER attempt to drive through them, as you don't know how deep the water truly is! We could also see some isolated severe storms through Sunday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC through the weekend. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, resulting in flash flooding. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as diurnal showers and thunderstorms are pervasive in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions this afternoon with scattered CU showing on satellite imagery. Pop up storms will once again develop this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms push into Middle TN from the NW overnight, after 04z. By Friday morning, additional showers and storms work through Middle TN, with any organized activity gone by 18z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 90 74 88 / 50 70 80 90 Clarksville 74 89 73 88 / 60 70 70 80 Crossville 68 83 68 81 / 30 80 90 90 Columbia 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 70 90 Cookeville 70 85 70 83 / 40 90 80 90 Jamestown 68 83 68 82 / 40 90 100 90 Lawrenceburg 72 88 72 86 / 30 60 70 90 Murfreesboro 73 90 73 88 / 40 70 70 90 Waverly 73 89 73 87 / 50 60 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034- 056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Cravens