FXUS64 KOHX 150016
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
716 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 716 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Thursday with record
  highs possible.

- There are medium to high rain/storm chances this afternoon and
  evening along and north of I-40.

- A dry, breezy cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing much 
  cooler temperatures this weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to make their way into
Middle Tennessee, and should move through by midnight. Otherwise,
expect lows in the 60s tonight after the rain moves out. Forecast
remains on track. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Record temperatures are expected today and again tomorrow as
strong high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
across Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft. A surface
boundary is lurking not far to our northwest, but it will be
another 48 hours or so before the cold front actually comes
through Middle Tennessee. In the meantime, we expect convection to
begin developing by early afternoon today and continue into the 
evening owing to the close proximity of the surface boundary, 
existing atmospheric instability and record precipitable water 
values for this date. Most of the convection will remain north of 
I-40, and QPF values overall are quite modest, although isolated 
spots could receive brief, heavy rainfall. Fortunately, the risk 
of any severe storms remains very low. The primary impact today 
and tomorrow is going to be the heat. Temperatures tomorrow will 
likely be even warmer than today's as warm air piles up against 
the surface boundary as it crawls toward Middle Tennessee. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

We expect fropa to occur in Middle Tennessee on Friday, after
which there will be a dramatic drop in temperatures. In fact, the
drop will be so dramatic that some frost might actually occur
Sunday morning along the Cumberland Plateau and other cool spots.
Friday's fropa will be a dry one, with the exception of a few
showers Friday and Friday night across portions of the Cumberland
Plateau. After that, rain chances going forward are non-existent
for the remainder of the 7-day forecast. Temperatures next week
will rebound somewhat, but will remain pleasant and autumn-like.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The TAF period will begin with a band of thunderstorms in 
northwest Middle TN, impacting CKV with periods of heavy 
downpours and gusty winds around 30KT through 02Z. These storms 
will weaken as they push eastward. Short range models keep most of
the cells north of BNA and MQY, so these sites will be coded with
VCTS 01-04Z. 

Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the taf period with south
southwest winds mostly less than 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  92  66  74 /  30  10   0   0 
Clarksville    69  92  62  69 /  60  10   0  10 
Crossville     64  84  62  75 /  20  10   0  10 
Columbia       68  93  65  77 /  10  10   0   0 
Cookeville     67  87  64  74 /  20  10   0  10 
Jamestown      66  86  65  74 /  20  10   0  20 
Lawrenceburg   66  90  63  78 /  10  10   0   0 
Murfreesboro   68  92  65  77 /  20  10   0   0 
Waverly        69  90  63  68 /  40  10   0  10 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13