FXUS64 KOHX 150515
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Rain will diminish from west to east overnight.

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through today with record 
  highs possible.

- A dry, breezy cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing much 
  cooler temperatures this weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are riding the KY/TN state line tonight from 
west to east. This activity is expected to stay north of I-40 and 
continue to weaken through the night. There is a slim chance for 
some patchy fog after the rain passes through overnight, with 
temperatures bottoming out in the 60s. 

Thursday should shake out to be a nice, albeit hot, day. The 
potential remains for record to be broken in the high temperature 
department, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. But skies will
be clearing up through the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The cold front that lags behind the rain we saw today is expected to 
swing through on Friday. This frontal passage looks to be dry, with 
the exception of some low rain chances on the Cumberland Plateau. 
After this, we're not expecting any rain for the remainder of the 
forecast period. Overall, we're looking at highs in the 60s/70s and 
lows in the 30s and 40s for the weekend. Our temperatures will drop 
so much that we could see our first frost of the season on the 
Cumberland Plateau on Sunday morning. Sadly, it will only be a taste 
of fall, as the return of clearer skies will also bring back the 
heat. Highs by mid-week next week will creep back up into the upper 
70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions persist with the exception of CKV where dense fog
will impact the terminal through 14Z. Light and variable winds
overnight will shift southwesterly after 15Z with sustained speeds
between 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  63  69  46 /  10   0  20   0 
Clarksville    91  58  66  44 /  10  10  10   0 
Crossville     85  62  73  41 /  10   0  30  20 
Columbia       93  63  72  45 /   0   0  20   0 
Cookeville     88  63  70  44 /  10   0  40  10 
Jamestown      86  63  72  43 /  10  10  40  20 
Lawrenceburg   91  63  73  44 /   0   0  20   0 
Murfreesboro   93  64  72  45 /   0   0  20   0 
Waverly        90  59  64  45 /  10   0  20   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Baggett