FXUS64 KOHX 160339
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much
  cooler temperatures for the weekend.

- The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will
  see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. 

- There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday 
  and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are 
  expected to worsen.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Friday will be more overcast than today was with the arrival of
the cold front to our doorstep. Even though the cold front is 
mostly deprived of moisture, there is a low chance for some 
showers on the KY/TN state line. Not looking at any meaningful QPF
with these chances, but a few hundredths are possible. Highs 
tomorrow will be varied over the area: in the mid 60s in the NW to
the mid 70s in the SE. 

The real change in air mass will be felt Saturday morning and into 
the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s 
and 40s. So break out those jackets if you haven't already, you'll 
be needing them this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The colder airmass will have some spots on the Cumberland Plateau 
looking at their first frost of the season Sunday morning. After the 
cold front passes, high pressure will settle in for the work week, 
unfortunately warming our temperatures back into the upper 70s by 
mid week. Fortunately, we look to stay around seasonal normals for 
temperatures, and not get as anomalously warm as we were this week. 
The forecast has no precipitation after Sunday, so this is bad news 
for the ongoing drought in Middle Tennessee. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR will continue through this evening with light SSW winds. A
cold front will move in late tonight into Friday morning bringing
an extended period of gusty NNW winds to 22KT and widespread MVFR
cigs. Isolated light showers are possible after frontal passage, but
coverage and impacts appear too limited to include in tafs. Cigs 
are expected to lift to VFR late Friday for CKV/BNA/MQY, but a lot
of clouds and gusty winds will persist. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  69  47  62 /   0  20   0   0 
Clarksville    57  66  44  62 /   0  20   0   0 
Crossville     62  73  41  54 /   0  20  10   0 
Columbia       63  72  45  63 /   0  20   0   0 
Cookeville     62  70  44  57 /   0  30  10   0 
Jamestown      62  71  42  54 /   0  40  20   0 
Lawrenceburg   63  73  45  61 /   0  20   0   0 
Murfreesboro   64  72  45  63 /   0  20   0   0 
Waverly        58  64  45  60 /  10  20   0   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....13