FXUS64 KOHX 161556 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1056 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A breezy cold front is pushing through the area, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only low, light rain chances with today's frontal passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front is marching through the area this morning bringing overcast skies, gusty northwest winds, and dropping temperatures. It is quite the change from the record-breaking heat we saw Monday through Thursday. Radar shows some light returns west of I-65, so some sprinkles and light showers will be possible this afternoon and evening. Any rain amounts will be a trace to a couple hundredths. Breezy northwest winds will continue overnight with cloud cover lingering. With the cold air advection, temperatures will be able to fall to the lower to mid 40s. Saturday will be the coolest day of the season so far with temperatures only making it to the mid 50s to lower 60s! Breezy northerly winds will continue and RH values over the western half of the CWA will drop to around 30%. I would advise to not burn anything given the ongoing drought conditions. Saturday night will see winds decrease and temperatures drop into the 30s. Light frost is likely in the low- lying areas along the plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The story of the extended period will be the continuing dry conditions. High pressure will be established on Sunday with influences continuing through the work week. The upper low over the Carolina coast may retrograde west onshore mid to late week but those influences will stay east of our area. Locally, we'll see high temperatures slowly climb through the 70s through the week with plenty of sunshine. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front is moving through Middle Tennessee this morning. This will bring a distinct NW wind shift with gusts 20-25 kts as well as MVFR cigs. FROPA is currently occuring at CKV. BNA and MQY timing is 1230-1300z. MVFR cigs are forecast to stick around through the early to mid afternoon with skies scattering out to VFR for the late afternoon and evening. Additional MVFR cigs are possible overnight as more wrap-around clouds moves into the area. Winds will become N tomorrow morning with gusts 15-20 kts && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 46 61 40 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 66 44 61 36 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 73 41 54 33 / 20 40 0 0 Columbia 72 45 63 38 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 70 43 56 36 / 30 30 0 0 Jamestown 71 42 54 34 / 40 50 0 0 Lawrenceburg 73 44 61 36 / 20 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 72 45 62 38 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 64 45 60 39 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Sizemore