FXUS64 KOHX 181017
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
517 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Above normal temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s continue
  through Tuesday.

- There is a high chance for showers and storms Tuesday night 
  into Wednesday. The severe threat is very low.

- Additional rain chances late week may push rainfall totals over
  2 inches by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Southerly flow persists again Monday, allowing for another day of 
above normal warmth as temperatures make their way into the
upper-80s to low-90s again. There is a disturbance to the 
northwest of Middle TN that will be responsible for afternoon 
convection. Most of this should stay to our northwest, but CAMs 
this evening are picking up on an isolated storm or two that may 
clip the Stewart County area late into Monday evening. Regardless,
most of Middle TN will remain dry through Monday. 

The pattern is still looking favorable for beneficial rain starting 
on Tuesday. A troughing pattern develops across the eastern CONUS 
with a series of shortwaves impacting the area through the end of 
the week, and moisture values will be on the rise with PWATs on 
Tuesday increasing to around 1.5 inches. As a cold front slowly 
approaches from the northwest, rain chances will increase ahead of 
it to around 60-80%, particularly Tuesday afternoon into the night. 
The severe weather threat for Tuesday looks low with better wind 
shear displaced to the north, but won't rule out a thunderstorm 
producing strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Highest rain chances of the week are on Wednesday as the front 
slowly pushes south. Severe weather threat Wednesday still looks to 
be low as the highest wind shear still is to the north, displaced 
from the higher instability to the south ahead of the front. But 
again, won't rule out the low chance for strong to damaging winds 
due to the front. Then unsettled weather is favored to persist 
through the end of the week and into next weekend as the front 
stalls somewhere over the region and southerly flow continues to 
advect moisture into the area. PWATs are expected to remain high 
at 1.5" or higher, helping to keep medium to high rain chances in 
the forecast. Probabilities for beneficial rain continue to trend 
up with latest ensemble guidance giving a 50-70% chance for at 
least 2 inches of rain by the end of the week which would 
certainly be good news for the drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. South winds will be 
light at night and gusty to 20-25 KTS daytime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  71  91  67 /   0   0  30  60 
Clarksville    90  72  90  66 /  10   0  50  80 
Crossville     85  66  85  63 /   0   0  20  40 
Columbia       90  70  90  66 /   0   0  30  60 
Cookeville     88  69  87  64 /   0   0  20  50 
Jamestown      89  66  88  63 /  10   0  20  40 
Lawrenceburg   88  71  87  66 /   0   0  20  50 
Murfreesboro   91  71  90  66 /   0   0  20  50 
Waverly        90  73  90  67 /   0   0  40  70 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....13