FXUS64 KOHX 191608 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will continue today with south winds gusting 20-25 KT. An approaching cold front will set off scattered thunderstorms starting this evening for CKV and perhaps BNA/MQY. Scattered showers and storms will gradually spread across the area late night into Wednesday morning. Confidence on exact timing is low. Brief impacts to cigs/vsby and gusty winds will occur with the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 83 64 / 10 50 90 60 Clarksville 90 67 79 62 / 30 80 100 50 Crossville 85 64 82 61 / 20 10 80 50 Columbia 90 67 82 63 / 10 30 80 50 Cookeville 87 66 83 63 / 30 20 90 50 Jamestown 88 64 84 61 / 30 10 90 50 Lawrenceburg 87 67 82 63 / 10 20 90 50 Murfreesboro 90 68 84 63 / 10 20 80 60 Waverly 91 67 80 63 / 30 80 90 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....13