FXUS64 KOHX 191732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1232 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A slow moving cold front will bring widespread scattered showers and storms to all terminals overnight tonight through Wednesday. It is a messy setup, and the chance for overnight storms is low at all terminals maybe aside from CKV. PROB30 groups have been included to capture this low chance. Confidence in timing is better by Wednesday morning with a much higher chance for rain and embedded thunderstorms to impact terminals. Lower MVFR to IFR cigs will accompany the front Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, SSW winds will gradually shift out of the north. Gusts up to 25 kts can be expected through this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 83 64 81 / 50 90 60 80 Clarksville 67 79 62 78 / 80 100 50 60 Crossville 64 82 61 79 / 10 80 50 90 Columbia 67 82 63 81 / 30 80 50 90 Cookeville 66 83 63 79 / 20 90 50 90 Jamestown 64 84 61 79 / 10 90 50 90 Lawrenceburg 67 82 63 80 / 20 90 50 80 Murfreesboro 68 84 63 82 / 20 80 60 90 Waverly 67 80 63 79 / 80 90 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....BaggettOHX-411728