FXUS64 KOHX 200050 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 750 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a very low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .UPDATE... Issued at 736 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have diminished this evening across Middle TN. Most activity is over West TN and along the TN River. There remains a low chance (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms across portions of Middle TN. That said, the storm environment remains generally poor with weak shear, so expecting any storms to remain pulse like in nature. Through the overnight and into Wednesday morning, isolated to scattered storms will continue, with activity remaining sub-severe. Showers and general thunderstorms become more widespread Wednesday as a cold front begins to work further SE across the mid state. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Have made some adjustments to the TAF this period revolving around low confidence scattered storms over the next 24 hours. Biggest adjustments were at CKV regarding storms this evening and again tomorrow morning. Lower cats expected to settle into mid-state terminals tomorrow afternoon with MVFR first (~20-21Z) then IFR after 00z (30-hr BNA TAF, but heads up for other terminals). Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) throughout, but shift to the north tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 83 64 81 / 50 90 60 80 Clarksville 67 79 62 78 / 80 100 50 60 Crossville 64 82 61 79 / 20 80 50 90 Columbia 67 82 63 81 / 30 80 50 90 Cookeville 66 83 63 79 / 20 90 50 90 Jamestown 64 84 61 79 / 20 90 50 90 Lawrenceburg 67 82 63 80 / 20 90 50 80 Murfreesboro 68 84 63 82 / 20 80 60 90 Waverly 67 80 63 79 / 80 90 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Cravens SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger