FXUS64 KOHX 200352 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1052 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will continue to slowly sag SE across Middle TN on Wednesday. This will maintain high rain and storm chances across the area, with the best coverage and intensity expected during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating combines with ample low- level moisture (PWATs remain near or above 1.5 inches). While instability will be modest behind the initial front passage, shear is weak and any training or slow-moving storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Highest probs for showers and storms will shift south of I-40 on Thursday as the front stalls across northern MS/AL. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms will remain likely, especially south of I-40. Rain totals through Thursday night could add another 0.5 to 1.5 inches for many locations, contributing to the broader wet pattern. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. No significant severe weather is expected during this time, though brief gusty winds and small hail are possible with the stronger storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The stalled frontal boundary to our south, combined with an upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern CONUS, will keep and active weather pattern in place through early next week. Multiple shortwave disturbances riding along the front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evenings. Rain chances remain medium to high each day. Forecast rainfall through the weekend and into early next week continue to support high probabilities for at least 2 inches across much of Middle TN. Some areas could see 3+ inches, especially if training storms develop. This will bring some drought relief. On the flip side, there will be some concern for minor flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will remain near normal, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s and overnight low in the mid to upper 60s. Beyond the weekend, model agreement decreases but the overall pattern favors continued unsettled conditions with daily rain chances into mid next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Have made some adjustments to the TAF this period revolving around low confidence scattered storms over the next 24 hours. Biggest adjustments were at CKV regarding storms this evening and again tomorrow morning. Lower cats expected to settle into mid-state terminals tomorrow afternoon with MVFR first (~20-21Z) then IFR after 00z (30-hr BNA TAF, but heads up for other terminals). Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) throughout, but shift to the north tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 83 64 / 20 50 90 60 Clarksville 90 67 79 62 / 30 80 100 50 Crossville 85 64 82 61 / 30 20 80 50 Columbia 90 67 82 63 / 10 30 80 50 Cookeville 87 66 83 63 / 30 20 90 50 Jamestown 88 64 84 61 / 30 20 90 50 Lawrenceburg 87 67 82 63 / 10 20 90 50 Murfreesboro 90 68 84 63 / 10 20 80 60 Waverly 91 67 80 63 / 30 80 90 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....Unger