FXUS64 KOHX 220329
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1029 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Low thunderstorm chances Saturday, primarily across the Plateau
  and southern Middle TN.

- Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this
  weekend with patchy fog Saturday and Sunday mornings.

- Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only 
concern being fog. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be 
supportive for fog overnight. Highest confidence in fog is across 
the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only 
low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau. Upper-level 
troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a 
weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during 
the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across
the Plateau. Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most
of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the 
upper-80s to low-90s. Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday
and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with 
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to 
upper-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the 
aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday. With ridging to the 
west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the 
week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be 
seasonably normal. Northwest flow also allows for daily low to 
medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the 
end of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle. Northwest winds will
persist through much of the period with a gradual transition north
late Saturday afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies overnight will
encourage fog development, some dense, mostly impacting CSV and
SRB. Probabilities for vis less than VFR thresholds at BNA, MQY
and CKV are low, less than 20%. Fog will burn off after sunrise
and winds at all terminals will pick up with occasional gusts up 
to 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  92  63  88 /   0  10   0   0 
Clarksville    65  91  63  87 /   0  10   0   0 
Crossville     63  84  59  81 /   0   0  10   0 
Columbia       67  93  65  90 /   0  10  10   0 
Cookeville     66  86  61  83 /   0  10   0   0 
Jamestown      65  85  61  81 /   0  10  10   0 
Lawrenceburg   66  91  64  88 /   0  10  10   0 
Murfreesboro   68  93  65  89 /   0  10   0   0 
Waverly        67  92  65  88 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett