FXUS64 KOHX 221110
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Low thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and early evening,
  primarily across the Plateau.

- Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this
  weekend with patchy fog this morning and tomorrow morning.

- Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal
  temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Patchy fog this morning, especially near bodies of water. Use
caution when you head out. We're currently under a marginal risk
for storms today, but almost every CAM is depicting almost
completely dry conditions through this evening. If any are showing
up, it's on the Plateau. If you see a storm, there would be a very
low risk of strong, gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only 
concern being fog. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be 
supportive for fog overnight. Highest confidence in fog is across 
the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only 
low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau. Upper-level 
troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a 
weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during 
the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across
the Plateau. Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most
of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the 
upper-80s to low-90s. Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday
and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with 
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to 
upper-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the 
aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday. With ridging to the 
west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the 
week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be 
seasonably normal. Northwest flow also allows for daily low to 
medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the 
end of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

IFR to MVFR fog being seen at CSV/SRB. VFR should return between
13 and 14Z. Winds will be relatively light today, but occasional
gusty of 15-18 kts during the afternoon. Fog will be an issue
again tonight, especially for CSV/SRB, but may be a little more
widespread. May need to include other terminals with future
updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  63  88  61 /  20   0   0   0 
Clarksville    91  63  87  61 /  20   0   0   0 
Crossville     84  59  81  57 /  20  30   0   0 
Columbia       93  65  90  62 /  20  20   0   0 
Cookeville     86  61  83  59 /  30  20   0   0 
Jamestown      85  61  81  58 /  30  30   0   0 
Lawrenceburg   91  64  88  61 /  10  20   0   0 
Murfreesboro   93  65  89  61 /  20  20   0   0 
Waverly        92  65  88  63 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Unger