FXUS64 KOHX 222350 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 650 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portions of the Cumberland Plateau until 10 PM. - Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week. - Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to dive southeast across the Cumberland Plateau this evening where a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 PM. The atmosphere is characterized by high downdraft CAPE, 30 kts of bulk shear, and larger dew point depressions at the surface with steep low-level lapse rates...all things that point to a damaging wind threat. Mid-level lapse rates have struggled a bit more, ranging between 6 to 6.2 C/km, though given ample instability, storms have been able to mature quickly. Activity will wind down with the loss of daytime heating and the overnight hours will be quiet. Some areas of patchy dense fog will be likely, especially over the Plateau. Tomorrow will be just a few degrees cooler thanks to tonight's cold front with highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s, possibly hitting 90 in a few spots. More noticeably will be the lower humidity as feel-like temperatures will be pretty close to the actual temperature in most places. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid- level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east of I-65. The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the front moving through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures are generally near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms will impact CSV over the next hour or two, otherwise VFR conditions prevail for all taf sites. A cold front is laid across Middle TN right now that is resulting in a gradual northerly wind shift. Winds will relax below 10 kts in the coming hours with high clouds passing through overnight. Areas of dense fog will be likely at CSV and SRB overnight, burning off after sunrise. Winds will remain northerly through the day Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 89 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 63 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 60 82 57 83 / 30 0 0 0 Columbia 66 90 63 90 / 30 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 83 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 82 58 82 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 65 88 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 65 90 62 89 / 30 0 0 0 Waverly 65 87 63 87 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett