FXUS61 KOKX 071955 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Improving conditions expected tonight will lead to a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Wave of low pressure passes well offshore tonight allowing for drier air to filter into the low levels. Lingering light rain, mainly across CT and parts of LI, will end this evening. Dry conditions will return overnight and continue through Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 3/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 4 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will exit to the east this evening with high pressure returning on Wednesday. Generally expect MVFR conditions over the majority of the area into this evening with pockets of IFR over portions of Connecticut and the Hudson Valley. Any additional precipitation will be limited to light rain or drizzle. Conditions will improve overnight. Widespread MVFR is expected tonight with VFR returning by early Wednesday morning. NNE to NE winds at around 10 knots are expected through the majority of the TAF period with winds beginning to shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... There may be a brief period where conditions fluctuate between IFR and MVFR late this afternoon into this evening. Conditions may improve to VFR sooner than anticipated later tonight. Amendments may be needed. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: VFR. Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA has been extended on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet through 18z Wednesday due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will diminish west of Moriches Inlet tonight and then on all waters on Wednesday with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists into Friday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...AM MARINE...DS