FXUS61 KOKX 091745 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast remains on track, with lead area of showers and embedded thunderstorms approaching the NYC/NJ metro between 1 and 2 pm. This activity is relatively weak as it encounters a weakly unstable and weakly sheared environment. Some of the 00z CAM guidance has initialized this activity fairly well, and does intensify this activity as it approaches NE NJ between 17z and 18z in response to building instability and approaching vort train. Primary threat will be for torrential downpours, with an isolated flash flood threat (10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5 %prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). The flash flood and severe threat decreases moving N and E from the NYC/NJ metro. Otherwise, there continues to remain good agreement on Mid- Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across portions of central NJ. These storm are expected to slide eastward. Additional storms are expected to develop possibly impacting the NYC terminals through 22z. Can not rule out some MVFR cigs ahead of any storms. Any convection will be capable of producing MVFR or lower conditions. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon. For the 30 hours TAFs, have included a PROB30 group. The far eastern terminals, KISP, KBDR, and KGON, Some IFR or lower fog/cigs are expected tonight. Winds will generally be from the S/SW, around 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. Winds diminish tonight and become light and variable. Friday morning, winds start off from the North, with some terminals becoming more Westerly in the afternoon ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection both today and tomorrow. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR. Sunday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV/MW