FXUS61 KOKX 092151 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 551 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quickly diminishing flash flood and severe wind threat early this evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind threat late afternoon and evening Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Isolated showers late Saturday aft/eve, otherwise dry conditions for the upcoming weekend into Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. 3) Hot and humid conditions build for Tue and Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered shower and isolated tstm activity will primarily affect NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings thru this evening ahead of an approaching shearing shortwave in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment, and a weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough approaching from the west. Primary threat will be for localized torrential downpours, with a low and localized flash flood threat (<10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for slow moving or briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat continues across SE PA and central/southern NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5% prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) in a marginally unstable and marginal shear profile. The flash flood and severe threat decreases after 7pm as environment gets worked over, instability decreases, and convection slides eastward into less favorable environment. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a cold front approaching the region in the late afternoon/evening. Latest trend is for a bit slower approach of cold front and weaker moisture convergence with more of a low-level w/sw flow as compared to model runs 24 hr ago, and drier mid-level moisture profile on Friday compared to today. Although trigger is there, focus and moisture/instability environment appears to be weaker than Today. This is pointing to more of an isolated to widely scattered convective threat in the late afternoon/evening (4pm-mid) with low and localized strong to severe (damaging) wind threat in a marginally (locally moderately) unstable, marginal deep layer shear (30-35kt), some mid-level dry air and low-level inverted V sounding environment. Localized strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Flash flood threat looks very limited compared to today, with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of today's pre- frontal trough), iso to widely scattered storm coverage, and quicker anticipated storm movement. Highs on Friday will come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Good agreement in mean upper troughing across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. Trough axis approaches late Saturday/Saturday evening, bringing sct-bkn aft instability cu and potential of late day isolated showers, particularly across interior in a weakly unstable and residually moist airmass. Seasonable temps with comfortably lower Tds on Sunday and Monday as heart of Canadian airmass advects into the region. .KEY MESSAGE 3... General agreement in building central US heat ridge expanding eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for building heat and humidity locally. Potential for heat advisory thresholds to be hit by Wednesday. Thereafter inherent uncertainty on whether an Aleutian originated upper low deteriorates the ridge enough to suppress the high heat and humidity south of the local region for late week, before building back in for next weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals. The main batch of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving south of KJFK and KEWR and pushing eastward. latest CAMs continue to show the potential for additional storms to develop across the region, however timing and placement of storms are still hard to pinpoint. Will continue to keep TEMPOs in the TAFs until 00z. Any convection will be capable of producing MVFR or lower conditions. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon. For the 30 hours TAFs, have included a PROB30 group. The far eastern terminals, KISP, KBDR, and KGON, Some IFR or lower fog/cigs are expected tonight. Winds will generally be from the S/SW, around 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. Winds diminish tonight and become light and variable. Friday morning, winds start off from the North, with some terminals becoming more Westerly in the afternoon ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection both today and tomorrow. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR. Sunday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions thru Fri with modest S/SW flow of 10-15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays this evening with coastal jet development. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions continue into Saturday, with high pressure building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of marginal SCA gusts and seas Sat Night into Sunday in response to strengthening easterly flow between developing offshore low and building high. Likely return to sub-SCA Sun aft into Mon as high pressure builds back in. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 2 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. Low to moderate rip risk for Saturday with 1-2 ft southerly swells, and 1-2 ft SE/E wind waves. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV