FXUS61 KOKX 150312 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1112 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front passes through this evening with a return to drier and and more seasonable conditions for tonight into Thursday. 2) A strong frontal system brings showers Thursday night into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. No significant impacts are anticipated at this time. 3) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW wind Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front push offshore this evening. No showers are expected with the frontal passage. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region tonight on NW/N winds with a few gusts up to 25 mph possible. Lows will fall into the upper 40s inland and lower 50s closer to the coast. Seasonable and dry conditions are expected on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong frontal system approaches Thursday night, with its associated warm front lifting north of the area Friday night. The trailing cold front will then move through the region Friday evening. The overall thinking has not changed with this system. Thermal forcing/warm advection quickly increase Thursday night, which will bring showers with the warm front passage into Friday morning. These showers will likely end mid to late morning with a lull in any activity. Rainfall amounts with this initial round of showers remain on the lighter side with average amounts a quarter inch or less. The region will then become warm sectored aiding in an slight increase in instability. Temperatures should be able to reach the 70s ahead of the cold front. Guidance is then signaling potential for a band of shallow convection, mainly in the form of showers, but a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The only concern with this potential convection is from an isolated severe wind gust. Currently, SPC has much of the Day 3 marginal risk south of the area, where instability is expected to be higher. This line of convection will be fast moving, so any downpours will be short-lived. A few showers remain possible behind the front until around midnight as the upper trough lags to the west and continues to amplify. Much drier air returns for the second half of Friday night as the cold front moves offshore. Average rainfall amounts with the evening convection/lingering showers will be around a quarter inch although a few spots could be slightly higher locally. No rainfall impacts are expected at this time. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The main story Friday night into the weekend will be much colder and drier air. Strong, NW gusty winds will follow the cold front passage Friday night and continue through much of Saturday. Peak gusts 30-40 mph are expected, especially Friday night into the first half of Saturday. The pressure gradient begins to relax Saturday afternoon, so gusts should start to lower heading into the evening. One note is there has been a notable trend down in the low level wind field in the guidance over the last 24-36 hours. Winds at the top of the mixed layer are currently progged to peak around 35 kt Friday night into Saturday morning based on forecast sounding analysis. While cannot completely rule out the eventual need for a wind advisory (gusts greater than 45 mph but less than 58 mph), the probabilities seem to be decreasing based on latest trends. The other story will be the coldest air of the season so far. Temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide Friday night with the gusty NW flow. Highs on Saturday will struggle to rise above 50 degrees inland and only reach the lower 50s elsewhere. These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for October 17. Winds should drop off Saturday night with a relaxed pressure gradient and high pressure building just to our west. Temperatures Saturday night could fall close to freezing with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Some slight moderation is expected Sunday into Monday with temperatures potentially close to normal by Tuesday. High pressure remains in control so dry conditions will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Behind a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the NW through Thursday. VFR. Some MVFR cigs may approach the terminals from the west toward 6Z on Friday along with some showers after 6Z. Winds will gradually veer around to the NW, then NNW behind the cold frontal passage into the first part of tonight. Occasional gusts are possible during the first half of tonight under the strongest cold air advection. Winds will then veer more northerly overnight and then NE Thursday morning. Winds continue to veer to the E and SE late Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts the first half of tonight could be more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond. Friday: Showers. IFR conditions likely early, improving to VFR in the afternoon for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Eastern terminals, especially KGON could stay sub-VFR. SW winds G20- 25kt. Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25-35kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday and Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A period of marginal SCA conditions (occasional gusts to 25 kt) likely tonight on the ocean behind the cold front passage tonight into Thu AM, elsewhere nearshore waters should see gusts 20 kt. The flow relaxes Thursday morning into afternoon with conditions below SCA levels through Thursday night. S flow increases Friday morning as a warm front lifts to the north. Winds will shift to the SW and become gusty 25-30 kt Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front passage likely occurs Friday evening. Following its passage, winds may gust to around 35 kt on the ocean waters. Per collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch Friday night through Saturday afternoon. The non ocean waters currently look more marginal, so have left them out for now. Winds should start to weaken late Saturday and gradually fall below SCA levels Saturday night into early Sunday. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KISP: 82/2026 Possible Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 14: KEWR: 67/1990 KBDR: 64/1990 KNYC: 68/1990 KLGA: 70/1990 KJFK: 67/1990 KISP: 66/1990 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...MW MARINE...DS