FXUS61 KOKX 220603 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation for the 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled conditions persist this weekend, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. 2) Drying out early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing remains across Great Lakes and Northeast, with a nearly stalled boundary and area of low pressure meandering just offshore. The center of the nearby low pressure is very evident on GOES-19 visible satellite imagery this afternoon, spinning about 90 mi SSE of Montauk in the western Atlantic. Cloud canopy is swirling around it, with overcast skies persisting across Long Island and much of S CT today, but much brighter skies from NYC on north and west. The center should continue meandering slowly eastward, bringing an end to and remaining light rain or drizzle by early this evening, before another wave approaches from the southwest on Saturday. A few morning showers could clip some coastal locations, before a lull then develops most of Saturday. Broad forcing for ascent from the trough, along with the shortwave energy moving through should help to instigate additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by late Saturday evening. Instability looks relatively limited, but moisture will be abundant, with PWATs along the coast increasing toward 2 inches. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire local area, and given the recent rains, it won't take much to renew any nuisance flooding in the urbanized and poor drainage areas. The threat for flash flooding will likely be contingent on training of heavier cells, which is a possibility overnight into Sunday morning. Peak hourly rainfall rates could approach an inch to an inch and a half, with localized totals up to a few inches. Coverage and severity of this activity appears lower in general than Thursday's event however, and opted not to hoist a Flood Watch at this point. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cyclonic flow with afternoon stratocu likely persists through early next week as the trough axis remains across the Northeast. The trough gradually exits into midweek as the flow aloft transitions to more quasi zonal. Absent any isolated diurnal showers, conditions largely remain dry as high pressure builds in and winds become westerly. Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below normal, with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure drifts away from the terminals overnight. Another wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south late today into Saturday night. Mainly VFR through the overnight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move in late in the overnight. MVFR cigs may also get into other eastern terminals like KISP and KBDR briefly overnight. Prevailing MVFR cigs are then expected to move in towards 14-15z this morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR through late Saturday afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and west. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 now for -RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with the exception being for northern terminals. MVFR ceilings become more widespread after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR ceilings possible, especially closer to 06z Sunday. Light winds overnight and either vrb or NE in direction. E/SE winds under 10kt for Saturday. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt into Saturday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: Showers and potential thunderstorms late. MVFR to IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Expect sub-SCA conditions to persist through early next week as a weak pressure gradient settles in over the local waters. Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate for both Saturday and Sunday with a prevailing SE swell. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JE MARINE...DR